The Coincident and Leading Barometers rise slightly in June, breaking a sequence of three consecutive declines. However, the outlook for global economic growth remains lower in the first half of the year than expected at the beginning of the year.
In June, the Global Economic Coincident Barometer rises by 1.4 points to 93.8 points, with increases across all three major analyzed regions. The Leading Barometer, in turn, rises modestly by 0.4 points to 96.5 points, driven only by an increase in the Western Hemisphere region, while the other regions move in the opposite direction.
“In particular the Western Hemisphere – including the United States and its nearest trading partners – has this month shown clear signs of relief in the survey data underlying the two global economic barometers. The pause, and potentially the de-escalation, of the US-initiated trade war has led to improved assessments of both the current situation and outlook. However, given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the international political landscape, it is unsurprising that these improvements do not indicate a clear recovery, let alone an upswing”, evaluates KOF Director Jan-Egbert Sturm.
Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors
The 1.4-point increase in the Coincident Barometer in June results from a positive contribution of 0.9 points from the Western Hemisphere indicator, followed by 0.4 points from Asia, Pacific & Africa and 0.4 points from Europe. With this result, the Western Hemisphere indicator