The Coincident and Leading Barometers rise in August for the third consecutive month, recovering much of the losses recorded between January and May this year.
The Coincident Global Economic Barometer rises by 2.1 points in August, reaching 97.8 points, while the Leading Barometer increases by 2.6 points, reaching 100.9 points. The increases are mainly driven by indicators from the Asia, Pacific & Africa, as well as the Western Hemisphere regions.
“After the initial negative impact of US Liberation Day on sentiment, both global barometers have risen for the third time in a row. Although the latest tariff increases by the world's largest economy are not yet reflected in the current data, this is a positive sign and hopefully reflects the increased resilience of the global economy. Alongside changes in supply chains and efficiency losses, the tense trade situation will lead to a decline in dependence on a single economy” comments KOF Director Jan-Egbert Sturm the latest results.
Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors
The 2.1-point increase in the Coincident Barometer in August results from positive contributions of 1.0 and 0.9 points from the Asia, Pacific & Africa and Western Hemisphere regions, respectively. The Europe indicator contributes with 0.2 points to the aggregated result. All regional indicators rise for the third consecutive month, but only Europe is above the level recorded at the end of last year. The Asia, Pacific & Africa indicator is close to its December 2024 level, while the Western Hemisphere indicator still remains the lowest among the three major regional indicators.
Four out of five bundles of coincident sector indicators rise in August. The Trade indicator bundle is the exception, although it still holds the highest level among the sectors. The positive highlight of the month is the rise in the Economy indicator bundle (aggregated development of business and consumer indicators), which is approaching the neutral level of 100 points.
Leading Barometer – regions and sectors
The 2.6-point increase in the Leading Global Barometer in August results from positive contributions of 1.6 points from the Western Hemisphere and 0.8 points from the Asia, Pacific & Africa region. Europe contributes with 0.2 points. All three regional indicators are above the 100-point level, with the Western Hemisphere indicator now standing out at 102.9 points.
All leading sector indicator bundles rise in August, with Trade standing out for its third consecutive monthly increase. Despite this, only Economy and Industry are above the neutral level of 100 points.