The Coincident and Leading Barometers rise in September for the fourth consecutive month, mainly due to slightly more favourable assessments and clearly brighter expectations in the Asia, Pacific & Africa region.
In September, the Global Economic Coincident Barometer rises by 0.3 points to 98.6 points, while the Leading Barometer increases by 1.6 points to 102.4 points. Both indicators reach their highest levels since February of this year. The regional components of both Barometers remain relatively stable during the month, except for the Leading indicators from the Asia, Pacific & Africa region, which record a marked rise in September.
“Both the coincident and leading global barometers have now fully recovered from the impact of Liberation Day. The US tariff announcements made in early August do not appear to have had a significant impact. While the leading indicator has remained slightly above average for two consecutive months, the coincident indicator appears to be steadily approaching its long-term average. This is generally positive, as it suggests that the world economy is on a steady path to recovery, despite ongoing geopolitical turmoil”, comments KOF Director Jan-Egbert Sturm the latest results.
Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors
The slight 0.3-point increase in the Coincident Barometer in September results from positive contributions of 0.2 and 0.1 points from the Asia, Pacific & Africa and Western Hemisphere regions, respectively. The Europe indicator remains stable during the month, suggesting a pause after rising between June and August. All three indicators stabilize near the neutral 100-point level.
Among the coincident sectoral indicators, results are mixed, with Industry and Services rising, while the other sectors move in the opposite direction.
Leading Barometer – regions and sectors
The 1.6-point increase in the Global Leading Barometer in September results from a positive contribution of 1.8 points from the Asia, Pacific & Africa region, a negative contribution of 0.2 points from the Western Hemisphere, and stability in the Europe region. All three regional indicators remain above the 100-point level, with the Western Hemisphere showing signs of stabilization after recent increases.The Leading Global Barometer leads the world economic growth rate cycle by three to six months on average.
All leading sectoral indicators rise in September, except for Construction, which continues to show some volatility since June of this year. Notably, the Economy indicator (which is based on variables representing overall business and consumer evaluations) reaches its highest level since February 2022 (107.8 points).