Switzerland's State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) and Federal Statistical Office (FSO) have carried out a benchmark revision of GDP data. This comprehensive revision of the national accounts has led to some significant adjustments in the time series. The KOF Institute has updated its autumn forecast on this basis. Overall, the economic outlook has hardly changed compared with the forecast published in September.
Further information on the revision of this data can be found in the FSO/SECO Revision Analysis for 2025: National Accounts.
The main changes in the data revision relate primarily to manufacturing and the wholesale trade on the production side, investment on the expenditure side, and merchanting as well as some trade in services as part of foreign trade. The KOF Institute has updated its forecast on the basis of this new data. The results confirm the general picture to date: the outlook for the Swiss economy remains largely unchanged. Only the gap between gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP adjusted for major sporting events has narrowed slightly, as additional major events are being taken into account in the current year.
Foreign trade
The outlook for foreign trade remains subdued. The adjustment has been particularly pronounced in merchanting, which is not relevant to the economic cycle. Consequently, the growth forecast for total exports in 2025 is now lower at 1.3 per cent (previously 2.8 per cent). The outlook for trade in goods remains unchanged. Imports and exports of services have been revised downwards, which means that the current data better reflect the subdued outlook for foreign trade. The forecast for service imports in 2025 is now for a decrease of 2.1 per cent (previously growth of 3.1 per cent). Service exports are now down slightly by 0.6 per cent in 2025 (previously up by 0.5 per cent).
Equipment investment
Equipment investment has been particularly affected by the recent benchmark revision of the Swiss Federal Statistical Office's (SFO) national accounts. According to the revised data, they fell much less sharply during the pandemic than previously assumed (2020: down by 0.4 per cent instead of 1.5 per cent) and recovered more strongly over the following years than previously reported (2021: up by 6.9 per cent instead of 5.8 per cent; 2022: up by 4.7 per cent instead of 3.3 per cent). Furthermore, the revised data for 2023 and 2024 now show a largely modestly positive trend in investment instead of the previous decline (2023: up by 3.8 per cent instead of 1.4 per cent; 2024: up by 1.2 per cent instead of a decrease of 2.1 per cent).
At present, however, the investment outlook remains unchanged. Weak earnings, insufficient capacity utilisation and ongoing uncertainty are weighing on firms' investment plans. Against this backdrop, KOF now expects investment to decline by 1.0 per cent in 2025 (previously growth of 0.6 per cent) based on the latest data. Investment is expected to stagnate in 2026 (up by 0.1 per cent; previously 0.2 per cent) before picking up again moderately in 2027 (up by 2.1 per cent; previously 2.0 per cent).
Construction investment
The data on investment and production in the construction sector has changed owing to the benchmark revision carried out by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real construction investment declined by 1.5 per cent and 1.4 per cent in 2023 and 2024 respectively (previously: 2023: down by 2.7 per cent, 2024: up by 2.2 per cent). As this shifts the starting point, the KOF Institute now expects construction investment to stagnate this year (0.0 per cent) instead of increasing by 1.4 per cent. A recovery is expected over the following years (2026: growth of 1.4 per cent, 2027: 1.5 per cent).
Based on the latest information, the recent growth picture in the construction segments has clouded over slightly: following six years of declines, residential construction is likely to have fallen again last year (2024: down by 1.1 per cent). Stabilisation followed by a modest recovery will not begin until this year at the earliest (2025: decrease of 0.4 per cent, 2026: growth of 1.0 per cent). However, the surprising increase in industrial, commercial and service construction in 2023 is still likely to be followed by a slowdown (2024: fall of 7.5 per cent, 2025: decline of 4.6 per cent) before firms' subdued investment appetite gradually improves over the further forecast period.