The Global Coincident and Leading Barometers rise in December, with both surpassing slightly the 100-point mark for the first time since March of this year. This month's increases are primarily attributable to favourable developments in the Asia, Pacific & Africa region.
In December, the Global Economic Coincident Barometer rises by 1.4 points to 101.3 points, and the Leading Barometer rises by 1.5 points to 101.6 points. Among the regions, Asia, Pacific & Africa and, to a lesser extent, the Western Hemisphere contribute positively to the result, while the indicators for Europe remain stable in both time horizons.
“Although it is only slightly above its long-term average, the Coincident Global Barometer has reached its highest level since March 2022. It is the Western Hemisphere, and specifically the US, that is pulling this sentiment down. The latter also applies to the Leading Global Barometer. This does not mean that structural problems in Europe and Asia have been resolved. Rather, it suggests that the world economy can no longer depend on the US market to ensure demand to the same extent as before”, comments KOF Director Jan-Egbert Sturm.
Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors
The 1.4-point increase in the Coincident Barometer in December results from a positive contribution of 1.2 points from the Asia, Pacific & Africa region and a small contribution of 0.2 points from the Western Hemisphere. The Europe indicator remains stable this month. As a result, only the Western Hemisphere records levels below 100 points, despite improvements in the last two months, while the Asia, Pacific & Africa region reaches 102.2 points, its highest level since February 2022 (107.1 points).
Among the coincident sectoral indicators, only the Services sector decreases in the month. Wholesale and retail trade records the highest level among sectors for the third consecutive month.
Leading Barometer – regions and sectors
The Global Leading Barometer rises in December, with the Asia, Pacific & Africa and Western Hemisphere regions contributing positively with 0.9 and 0.6 points, respectively. Europe, as in the Coincident Barometer, remains stable in the month. As a result, only the Western Hemisphere remains below the 100-point level. The Leading Global Barometer leads the world economic growth rate cycle by three to six months on average.
Among the leading sectoral indicators, only wholesale and retail trade decreases in the month and remains below the 100-point level. Construction returns to the neutral level.