The Coincident and Leading Global Barometers rise in January, although more slowly than at the end of last year. The result shows moderate growth for the world economy. However, the potential economic impact of United States military action in Venezuela on the Western Hemisphere is not yet reflected in the data.
In January, the Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers rise by 0.9 and 0.5 points, reaching 102.0 and 102.1 points, respectively. Across the different regions, contributions were balanced, with Asia, Pacific & Africa contributing positively to both results, while the other regions varied between positive contribution and stability.
“This is the first time in years that all the sectors and major regions defined in the coincident version of the Global Barometer have exceeded their respective long-term averages. Of the leading indicators, only those for the Western Hemisphere and retail and wholesale did not do the same. Despite geopolitical tensions, the world economy is slowly recovering. However, the outlook remains cautious, as the leading indicator is barely outperforming the coincident indicator”, comments KOF Director Jan-Egbert Sturm.
Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors
The 0.9-point rise in the Coincident Barometer in January results from the positive contribution of 0.5 point from Asia, Pacific & Africa and 0.4 point from the Western Hemisphere. The indicator for Europe remains stable in the month. With this result, all regions register levels above 100 points and show a gradual recovery development.
Among the coincident sector indicators, only Wholesale and Retail Trade falls in the month. All sectors also show levels above 100 points.
Leading Barometer – regions and sectors
The Leading Global Barometer rises by 0.5 point in January, with Asia, Pacific & Africa and Europe contributing moderately and positively by 0.3 and 0.2 point, respectively. The Western Hemisphere, in turn, remains stable in the month. With this result, only the Western Hemisphere is below 100 points. The Leading Global Barometer leads the world economic growth rate cycle by three to six months on average.
Among the leading sector indicators, all rise in the month, except for Industry, which remains constant in January. The Services sector rises and reaches its highest level since January 2022 (107.6 points).