The Global Barometers continue to rise in February, moving slightly further above the medium-term average of 100 points. The results are mainly driven by the Asia, Pacific & Africa region. The slight global economic recovery continues.
In February, the Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers increase by 1.5 and 0.3 points respectively, reaching 102.9 and 101.7 points. Asia, Pacific & Africa is the main driver of both movements, while contributions across the other regions largely offset each other.
„Another month in which both the coincident and leading global barometers are above average and improving: the world economy continues to be in recovery mode and hold against the geopolitical tensions”, comments KOF Director Jan-Egbert Sturm.
Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors
The increase in the Coincident Barometer in February reflects a positive contribution of 1.5 point from Asia, Pacific & Africa, while the other regions offset each other: Europe contributes positively by 0.2 point, and the Western Hemisphere contributes negatively by 0.2 point. Therefore, the Western Hemisphere is now the sole region below the 100‑point level, while Asia, Pacific & Africa records its highest reading since February 2022, when it registered 108.7 points.
Among the coincident sector indicators, all sectors except Industry, record markedly rises in the month, with Services posting the strongest increase.
Leading Barometer – regions and sectors
The Leading Global Barometer rises by 0.3 point in February, with Asia, Pacific & Africa and the Western Hemisphere contributing with moderate positive contributions of 0.3 and 0.1 point, respectively. Europe, in turn, contributes with a slight decrease of 0.1 point. With this result, Asia, Pacific & Africa remains the region with the highest level, widening its gap this month. The Leading Global Barometer leads the world economic growth rate cycle by three to six months on average.
The leading sector indicators present heterogeneous dynamics in the month. Industry, Wholesale and Retail trade, and Services register increases, whereas Construction and Economy (Overall Economic Development), record declines.