The Global Coincident and Leading Barometers fall in March in a movement of accommodation after rising in previous months. Both indicators remain above the 100‑point mark, still showing moderate growth for the world economy.
In March, the Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers fall by 0.3 and 1.4 points, reaching 102.5 and 101.3 points, respectively. Asia, Pacific & Africa and Europe contribute negatively to the result, while the Western Hemisphere moves in the opposite direction.
“Although the global barometers remain above average, we are witnessing a decline in both the leading and coincident versions. As most of the data was collected in February, it is important to note that these indicators do not yet reflect the US/Israeli attack on Iran and its aftermath, including the subsequent increase in oil and gas prices. It will therefore be interesting to see how these new geopolitical developments affect business and consumer sentiment worldwide next month. For now, we cannot read too much into this month's movements”, comments KOF director Jan-Egbert Sturm the latest results.
Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors
The 0.3‑point decrease of the Coincident Barometer in March results from the negative contribution of 0.9 point from Asia, Pacific & Africa and 0.2 point from Europe, while the Western Hemisphere contributes positively with 0.8 point. With this result, the Western Hemisphere returns to having the highest level among the regions, something not seen since September 2025.
Among the coincident sector indicators, all sectors fall in the month, except for Industry, which reaches its highest level since April 2022 (105.0 points), despite registering the strongest decline among the sectors.
Leading Barometer – regions and sectors
The Leading Global Barometer falls by 1.4 points in March, with negative contributions from Asia, Pacific & Africa (2.4 points) and Europe (0.3 point). The Western Hemisphere contributes in the opposite direction, positively with 1.3 points. With this result, the Western Hemisphere reaches its highest level since February 2025 (108.7 points) and the highest among the regions. The Leading Global Barometer leads the world economic growth rate cycle by three to six months on average.
The leading sector indicators fall in the month, except for Wholesale and retail trade, which rises for the fourth consecutive time and reaches its highest level since May 2022 (when it reached 114.4 points).