Source: KOF Swiss Economic Institute
Zurich, 09/10/2026, 2 PM CET
The Coincident and Leading Global Barometers rise in September, with both standing above the 100-point mark and indicating moderate growth for the world economy. This movement reflects a recovery of the Coincident Barometer, which had declined the previous month, while the Leading Barometer continues its upward trajectory.
In September, the Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers rise 1.4 points, to 104.6 and 105.9 points, respectively, returning to the level of early 2022. The Asia, Pacific & Africa region contributes positively with greater magnitude to both results, while the other regions contribute moderately.
“Not only are all regions distinguished in the coincident barometer above average this month, but so are all sectors. The last time this occurred was in March 2022, during the post-pandemic boom. A similar situation prevails for the leading indicator. To find a comparable, consistently positive outlook, we have to go back 4.5 years. The difference is that, at that time, the indicators were coming down from a high. Today, however, despite ongoing geopolitical turmoil, they indicate that the world economy has been improving cyclically for six months now”, comments Jan-Egbert Sturm, Director of KOF Swiss Economic Institute.
Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors
The 1.4-point rise of the Coincident Barometer in September results from a positive contribution of 1.1 points from the Asia, Pacific & Africa region and 0.3 points from the Western Hemisphere, while the indicator for the Europe region is stable this month. With all regional indicators above 100 points, the Western Hemisphere records the highest level among the regions, Asia, Pacific & Africa reaches 104.5 points, the highest level since February 2022 (108.3 points), and Europe reaches 101.0 points, the highest level since June 2022 (103.3 points).
Among the coincident sectoral indicators, all sectors rise this month. As a result, Industry presents the highest level since March 2022 (109.8 points) and distances itself from the other indicators.
Leading Barometer – regions and sectors
The Leading Global Barometer also rises 1.4 points in September, with the Asia, Pacific & Africa region and Europe contributing positively with 1.2 and 0.3 points, respectively. In the opposite direction, the Western Hemisphere contributes very slightly negative, with 0.1 points. As a result, the Asia, Pacific & Africa region reaches the highest level since January 2022 (107.1 points), while the Western Hemisphere region loses momentum since mid-2026. The Leading Global Barometer leads the world economic growth rate cycle by three to six months on average.
The leading sectoral indicators show heterogeneous results this month, with increases in the Economy (aggregation of business and consumer indicators), Services, Industry, and Construction, while Wholesale and retail trade declines. The Economy reaches the highest level since February 2022 (106.1 points) and Industry reaches the highest level since October 2021 (109.0 points).