The Coincident Barometer rises slightly in November, while the Leading Barometer decreases for the second consecutive month, suggesting a weakening of the global recovery phase in the near future. As a result, both indicators converge to values close to the 100-point level.
In November, the Global Economic Coincident Barometer rises by 0.4 points to 99.6 points, while the Leading Barometer moves in the opposite direction, decreasing by 2.3 points to 99.7 points. Across the analysed regions, results are mixed. The Asia, Pacific & Africa region contributes negatively to both time horizons, while Europe has a positive, albeit moderate, impact. The Western Hemisphere contributes positively to the Coincident Barometer and negatively to the Leading Barometer.
“The good news is that the coincident indicator continued to rise, albeit by a small amount. The bad news is that the leading indicator has declined, causing the two indicators to converge. This suggests that further improvements in the coincident indicator are becoming less likely. As both indicators are close to their long-term averages, the current state of the world economy can be described as 'the new normal', comments Jan-Egbert Sturm, Director of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, the latest results.
Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors
The 0.4-point increase in the Coincident Barometer in November results from positive contributions of 0.3 points from both the Western Hemisphere and Europe regions. Notably, the Europe indicator reaches its highest level since June 2022 (102.8 points), and the highest level among the regions. The Asia, Pacific & Africa region contributes negatively with 0.2 points, after five consecutive months of increases. The Global Coincident Barometer remains relatively stable since August, fluctuating within a narrow range between 99 and 100 points.
Among the coincident sectoral indicators, Services, Trade, and Economy (which is based on variables representing overall business and consumer evaluations) rise this month, while Construction and Industry decrease. As a result, Industry becomes the only sector below the 100-point level.
Leading Barometer – regions and sectors
The Global Leading Barometer decreases in November, with the Asia, Pacific & Africa and Western Hemisphere regions contributing negatively with 1.8 and 0.6 points, respectively. Europe, on the other hand, contributes positively with 0.4 points. As a result, Europe once again records the highest level among the regions, while the Western Hemisphere continues its downward tendency. The Leading Global Barometer leads the world economic growth rate cycle by three to six months on average.
Among the leading sectoral indicators, only Services does not decrease this month. The Construction indicator records the largest drop, reaching its lowest level since September 2024 (93.2 points at the time).