Healthcare spending in Switzerland continues to grow – and at a faster rate than in the past. Forecasts by the KOF Institute show that total healthcare expenditure in Switzerland is set to rise from just under CHF 94 billion in 2023 to CHF 109.6 billion in 2027. This represents an increase of CHF 15.6 billion within four years.
The KOF Institute's healthcare expenditure forecast predicts that healthcare costs will continue to grow at a high rate this year (3.7 per cent), next year (3.6 per cent) and in 2027 (3.5 per cent). The average annual increase over the forecast period (2024 to 2027) will be 3.9 per cent, following 3.1 per cent over the previous ten years and 3.5 per cent over the entire historical period since 1997. Growth rates are therefore above the average for recent years and, accordingly, no slowdown in cost growth is expected in Switzerland in the com-ing years. The steady growth in healthcare spending is mainly due to greater consumption of these services (volume expansion).
Growing economic relevance of the healthcare sector
The growing importance of this sector becomes clear if we compare healthcare expenditure with total eco-nomic output: its share of gross domestic product (GDP) will have risen from 8.9 per cent (1997) to 12.2 per cent (2027) within 30 years. A comparison of the 38 OECD countries for 2024 ranks Switzerland fourth. Healthcare spending in Switzerland is therefore high by international standards. However, the Swiss healthcare system also tends to rank highly in terms of the usual quality indicators.
Long-term care as the main cost driver: premiums expected to rise in the medium term
From a service perspective, the forecast shows long-term care as the main driver, followed by outpatient treatment, while inpatient treatment continues to decrease as a share of the total. In terms of service provid-ers, doctors' surgeries and outpatient centres, hospitals and social care institutions (nursing homes) dominate growth. The retail sector – mainly pharmacies – contributes only marginally to growth, while the state is be-coming less important again after the pandemic-related increase. As far as funding is concerned, compulsory health insurance (OKP) continues to bear the brunt of the higher costs, which implies rising premiums – at least in the medium term. The cantons also bear a significant share of the increase in expenditure.
Major challenges in the healthcare system
From a macroeconomic perspective it is not problematic per se if healthcare spending accounts for an in-creasing share of an economy's total expenditure in an ageing society. However, the Swiss healthcare sys-tem faces major challenges ranging from issues of efficiency, quality and distribution to digital technology and the use of artificial intelligence, the security of the supply of medicines, and tackling the crisis of antibiotic resistance.