January 8 2026 – OPEC's grip on global oil markets could be facing its most serious test in years as US refiners move to seize control of Venezuelan crude, asserts the CEO of global financial advisory giant deVere Group.
Nigel Green's analysis comes as Washington ramps up asserting authority over Venezuela's oil sector, and as American refiners are seen to be positioning themselves to become the new power brokers in a market long dominated by producer alliances.
Oil traders and US refiners are scrambling to secure Venezuelan supply after reports that Chevron is seeking a wider operating licence and Citgo could resume purchases of crude.
The deVere chief executive comments: “US firms are demanding explicit guarantees from Washington before committing fresh capital, while Chinese oil companies are asking Beijing how to protect their interests.
“The message is unmistakable. Control of Venezuelan oil is shifting rapidly from boardrooms to governments.”
If the Trump administration expands permissions, the impact will be immediate and structural. US Gulf Coast refineries are among the few in the world designed to process Venezuela's heavy sour crude efficiently.
Years of sanctions have kept those barrels sidelined, forcing refiners to rely on alternative heavy grades that are now increasingly scarce.
Sanctions on Iran and Russia have tightened the market further, leaving refiners competing for a shrinking pool of suitable feedstock.
“Guaranteed access to Venezuelan crude would change that overnight. For US refiners, it would mean lower input costs, stronger margins, and a strategic advantage competitors cannot easily replicate.
“For the global market, it would mean a profound shift in where pricing power sits.”
For decades, OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) has shaped oil markets through coordinated production decisions.
Nigel Green says: “This influence remains significant, but it weakens the moment access to supply becomes governed less by cartel policy and more by political authorization. OPEC controls barrels. Washington controls licences. When those two forces collide, the balance of power is bound to start to tilt.
“Venezuelan oil now sits at the centre of that collision.”
The country holds the world's largest proven crude reserves, yet its output remains constrained by sanctions, infrastructure decay, and diplomatic isolation.
“Any move by the US to loosen restrictions would instantly elevate Venezuelan barrels from distressed supply to strategic commodity. Companies allowed to lift that oil gain more than commercial and geopolitical advantage.”
This is why Chinese oil firms are seeking guidance from Beijing. Their concern is not theoretical. It reflects a recognition that access to Venezuelan energy is becoming a political contest rather than a market transaction.
“If Washington determines who can buy, ship, and refine Venezuelan crude, then global energy flows begin to follow diplomatic lines.”
The deVere CEO notes: “For OPEC, this creates an uncomfortable reality. The cartel can still adjust output targets, but it cannot override US sanctions policy; it can't dictate licensing decisions; and it can't prevent American refiners from consolidating influence if regulatory clearance is granted.
“This doesn't mean OPEC becomes irrelevant. It means its dominance faces a rival force it cannot control.”
For markets, this marks the return of energy power politics in its most modern form.
“Not through embargoes or price wars, but through licences, waivers, and diplomatic leverage. The battlefield shifts from production quotas to regulatory desks in Washington.”
He concludes: “If Chevron secures broader permissions and Citgo resumes purchases, the shift will be unmistakable.
“US refiners will move from being price-takers in a cartel-driven system to gatekeepers in a politically governed one.
“OPEC will still matter, but it will no longer stand alone at the centre of oil market power. This matters for investors globally.”