The KOF Employment Indicator has risen by 1.1 points in the first quarter of 2026, returning to above its long-term average. The modest recovery in the indicator, which began in the last quarter, is continuing. The outlook for the Swiss labour market is improving slightly. However, the picture across sectors remains mixed.
The KOF Employment Indicator stands at 2.4 points in the first quarter of 2026, up from 1.3 points in the last quarter (revised from 0.7 points). This upward revision is due to the improvement in the employment outlook between October and December 2025, which can be attributed, among other things, to the memorandum of understanding between Switzerland and the United States and the new customs tariff regulations of 14 November 2025.
The indicator is based on the quarterly Business Tendency Surveys conducted by the KOF Institute. The employment indicator comprises two sub-components: current staffing levels and the employment outlook. Evaluations for the first quarter of 2026 are based on the responses of around 4,500 firms surveyed in January. Assessments of current employment levels have improved slightly and stand at 1.6 points on balance (after 1.3 points in the last quarter). By contrast, the net balance of employment expectations for the next three months has risen more sharply from 1.3 to 3.3 points. The increase in the employment indicator is therefore mainly due to the improved employment outlook. Overall, more companies expect to create jobs than those anticipating job cuts. As the KOF Employment Indicator is a leading indicator of actual employment trends, its current level suggests improved job prospects on the Swiss labour market in the current and coming quarters.
Varying trends across sectors
Despite the overall economic upturn, the picture across sectors remains mixed. In the retail and wholesale sectors, for example, the outlook remains subdued. The employment indicator for the wholesale trade has continued to fall in the current quarter to minus 11.1 points (after minus 9.6 points in the last quarter). The retail trade currently stands at minus 3.1 points. Although the industry-specific indicator for the manufacturing sector too remains in negative territory, it has recovered compared with the last quarter, rising from minus 11.5 points to minus 7.0 points. Despite the fact that the situation in the hospitality industry has also improved slightly, the relevant indicator remains in negative territory at minus 2.4 points.
Although the indicator for other services remains in positive territory at 7.3 points, it has declined slightly compared with the last quarter. The encouraging trend in the construction industry continues. The sector-specific indicator has risen from 9.5 points to 10.6 points, reaching its highest level in over two years.