The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector in April, which was calculated from the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, more than compensated for its decline from the previous month, rising above where it had been at the start of 2026. However, companies see storm clouds gathering. Their forecasts for the coming six months are more cautious for the third month in a row.
The Business Situation Indicator for the manufacturing sector has fully recovered from its decline in March. The indicator is rising even more sharply in the project engineering sector and, more moderately, in the wholesale trade. Other services and the retail trade are also showing modest upturns. The Business Situation Indicators for the construction sector and for financial services and insurance fell slightly short of the previous month's figures. The hospitality sector is experiencing a significant slowdown.
Business forecasts are becoming gloomier
However, the business outlook for the next six months is generally becoming more subdued – particularly in the hospitality sector, the wholesale trade and manufacturing. The downturn is less pronounced in other services, financial services and insurance, and the project engineering sector. The business outlook for construction remains unchanged from the previous month, whilst it is slightly more encouraging in the retail sector.
Profitability remains stable
Swiss companies are weathering the adverse international conditions to some extent; their earnings are more or less stable or are easing slightly – as in the wholesale trade and the manufacturing sector. However, firms expect international demand to slow in the near future. The export outlook for manufacturing is less positive than before, while the hospitality sector now fears a decline in overnight stays by foreign guests.
Robust supply chains in the manufacturing sector
Companies in the manufacturing sector and the wholesale trade are more frequently anticipating rising purchase prices when ordering goods themselves. At present, however, supply chains are generally holding up well: complaints about shortages of intermediate goods remain rare in the manufacturing sector, whilst in the construction sector they are rising slightly from a low base. The wholesale sector, however, is sending out warning signals: companies are anticipating longer delivery periods more often than before and are increasingly concerned about the availability of goods. This issue is therefore likely to remain a major risk over the coming months.
Widespread growing price pressures; little change in wage expectations
Swiss firms are planning to raise their prices much more frequently than before. This trend is evident in many of the sectors surveyed. It is particularly pronounced in the wholesale trade but is also clearly discernible in construction, retail, manufacturing and services. Only in the hospitality sector is price inflation easing. Companies' forecasts of general consumer price inflation over the next twelve months are also higher than before: following 0.9 per cent in January 2026, firms now expect to see inflation of 1.2 per cent. Forecasts of wage growth over the next twelve months, however, have hardly changed, with companies anticipating wage increases of 1.2 per cent (January 2026: 1.3 per cent). There are changes in the construction sector and in project engineering, where forecasts for both have risen from 1.7 per cent in January to 2.2 per cent in April, and in the hospitality sector, where they have fallen from 1.9 per cent in January to 1.4 per cent. All in all, the rise in inflation and price expectations is not causing any adjustment in wage expectations.
The results of the KOF Business Tendency Surveys for April 2026 are based on responses from around 4,200 firms in the manufacturing, construction and major service sectors. This equates to a response rate of around 54 per cent.