Author: MIL-OSI Publisher

A new comparative analysis reveals that the United States now carries a national debt burden per person that is 7.5 times higher than China's, underscoring a widening gap in how sovereign debt translates into individual economic pressure across major economies.

According to research published by TechGaged.com, U.S. national debt per person has reached $110,848, compared with $14,764 in China. While China's total national debt exceeds $20.8 trillion, its population of more than 1.4 billion people significantly dilutes the per-person impact. In contrast, the United States' $38.7 trillion debt is spread across a population of roughly 349 million, sharply elevating its per-person metric.

The study compares national debt per person across a broad range of advanced and emerging economies, revealing that the U.S. stands alone at the top of the ranking. Japan follows at $90,502 per person, while major European economies — including Belgium, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom — cluster well below U.S. levels. Large economies such as Germany and Australia also maintain substantially lower per-person debt burdens despite comparable economic scale.

Beyond traditional fiscal analysis, the findings carry important implications for monetary policy and digital asset markets. High per-person debt levels are often associated with sustained deficits, constrained fiscal flexibility, and increased reliance on accommodative monetary conditions — dynamics that have become central to crypto-market narratives in recent years.

“Looking at debt on a per-person basis cuts through headline totals and shows where fiscal pressure is most concentrated,” said Rokas Baltrusaitis, Senior Research Analyst at TechGaged.com. “When debt grows faster than population, governments face stronger incentives to rely on monetary expansion. That backdrop helps explain why investors increasingly view Bitcoin and other scarce digital assets as long-term macro hedges rather than short-term trades.”

Market and Crypto Implications

The research suggests that persistently rising per-person debt levels may increasingly shape investor behavior, particularly in economies with limited fiscal headroom. As governments rely more heavily on debt issuance and supportive monetary policy, concerns around currency dilution, real yields, and long-term purchasing power tend to intensify.

In this environment, crypto assets with fixed or transparent supply dynamics are gaining relevance as macro-sensitive instruments rather than purely speculative vehicles. The widening per-person debt gap between the United States and other major economies highlights why fiscal metrics are becoming a growing part of digital asset risk assessment and portfolio construction.

Read the full story with statistics: https://techgaged.com/u-s-national-debt-per-person-now-7-5x-higher-than-chinas/

Methodology:
National debt per person is calculated by dividing each country's total government-reported gross public debt by its estimated total population as of February 2026. All figures are expressed in U.S. dollars.

Disclaimer:
National debt per person is a comparative metric and does not represent individual financial obligation. Exchange rates, accounting standards, and debt definitions may vary by country.

About TechGaged.com
TechGaged.com is a crypto-focused news and research platform covering digital assets, macro-financial trends, regulation, and market structure through data-driven analysis.

03 FEBRUARY 2026 – Equinor has signed an agreement with Vista Energy to divest its full onshore position in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta basin. The transaction includes Equinor’s 30% non-operated interest in the Bandurria Sur asset and its 50% non-operated interest in the Bajo del Toro asset. Equinor’s Argentinian offshore acreage is not affected by the transaction.

The total consideration is valued at around USD 1.1 billion. At closing, Equinor will receive an upfront cash payment of USD 550 million as well as shares in Vista. The consideration also includes contingent payments linked to production and oil prices over a five-year period. The transaction has an effective date of 1 July 2025.

“We are realising value from two high-quality assets we have actively developed as we continue to high-grade our international portfolio,” says Philippe Mathieu, executive vice president for Exploration & Production International.

“This transaction strengthens Equinor’s financial flexibility as we evaluate opportunities in our core international markets, where we see substantial growth towards 2030. At the same time, we retain optionality through our offshore positions in Argentina.”

The international portfolio is expected to grow production and cash flow towards 2030, driven by core positions in Brazil, the US, and the UK.

Equinor has been present in Argentina since 2017, entering the Vaca Muerta through a joint exploration agreement with YPF on the Bajo del Toro asset. The onshore portfolio was expanded in 2020 with the acquisition of Bandurria Sur.

Equinor’s share of the Bandurria Sur production averaged 24,400 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day in 3Q 2025. Bajo del Toro, which is still in an early development phase, contributed 2,100 net boe per day.

In 2019, Equinor added eight offshore exploration licenses to its portfolio, in the North Argentinian Basin and the southern Austral and Malvinas basins. Subsurface evaluation is ongoing to determine the most commercially attractive path forward for the offshore portfolio. There are no current well commitments across the licenses.

“This is a value-driven decision that enhances the resilience of our international portfolio and sharpens our focus in Argentina,” says Chris Golden, senior vice president for the US and Argentina in Exploration & Production International.

Closing of the transaction will, among other things, be subject to relevant approvals.

02 FEBRUARY 2026 – Bristow has been awarded a new long-term contract for two S-92 passenger transport helicopters and one S-92 search and rescue (SAR) helicopter based in Hammerfest.

Equinor and Vår Energi have awarded Bristow a new, long-term contract for helicopter transportation and search and rescue (SAR) services from the base in Hammerfest. The contract ensures stable and predictable services at a time of increased activity in the Barents Sea.

“The safety of everyone travelling to and from offshore installations is our number one priority. Since the start-up of Johan Castberg, the long-term need for services in the Barents Sea has increased, and stable helicopter capacity is crucial for safe and efficient operations. Good search and rescue services are also an important part of emergency preparedness, both for offshore employees and for everyone travelling in this ocean area,” says Mette Ottøy, Equinor's senior vice president for Joint Operations Support.

The new helicopter contract takes effect on 1 September 2026. The fixed contract period is for three years, with two one-year extension options. The total estimated value of the entire contract, including options, is about NOK 1.9 billion.

Bristow currently operates two transportation helicopters and one SAR helicopter serving the northern operations for both Equinor and Vår Energi. With the new contract, the company will continue these services in the years to come and contribute to stable operations and high safety on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) in the north.

The helicopters e.g. serve the Johan Castberg field for Equinor, which came on stream in March 2025, and the Goliat field for Vår Energi. The activity on the fields is high, with around 90 helicopter flights and about 3,400 passengers each month.

The SAR helicopter is part of the extended area preparedness in the Barents Sea and contributes to increased safety for everyone travelling in the ocean areas, both in petroleum activities, fisheries and other maritime activities. The contract not only contributes to safe transportation to offshore installations, but also helps further strengthen the overall emergency preparedness in the north.

“We look forward to continuing the collaboration with Bristow in Hammerfest. The contract underlines the importance of long-term cooperation on the NCS and contributes to value creation and spin-offs from petroleum activities in the norther areas,” concludes Ottøy.

About Equinor's helicopter traffic

Around 320,000 passengers are transported to and from Equinor's installations on the NCS annually. This corresponds to more than 24,000 flight hours a year.
11,465 passenger flights were carried out in 2025 from Stavanger, Bergen, Florø, Kristiansund, Brønnøysund and Hammerfest.
Equinor has the following three helicopter operators on the NCS: Bristow Norway, CHC Helicopter Service and Lufttransport RW AS.

January 29 2026 – Threats of a US government shutdown are helping to drive already accelerating anti-dollar trading, warns the CEO of financial advisory giant deVere Group.

The warning from Nigel Green comes as Washington faces a looming partial shutdown that could begin at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on Saturday if lawmakers fail to pass a funding package.

It puts more than $1.2 trillion in federal spending at risk and threatens funding for major departments including Defense, Treasury, State, and Health and Human Services.

A shutdown would trigger widespread federal furloughs, disrupt official economic data, stall government contracts, and force essential workers to operate without pay, compounding macro uncertainty and lifting risk premiums in global markets.

“Repeated shutdown brinkmanship erodes confidence in US governance, and markets are likely to be starting to price political dysfunction into the dollar,” says Nigel Green.

“The anti-dollar trade reflects growing doubts about the reliability of US policymaking and fiscal discipline.”

He argues that shutdown threats undermine the perception of US assets as the global benchmark for safety.

“The dollar's dominance rests on institutional stability, fiscal credibility, and policy predictability. Shutdown risks weaken all three pillars.

“In currency markets, uncertainty drives diversification, and diversification means less reliance on the dollar.”

The chief executive points to the scale and frequency of fiscal confrontations in Washington as a structural issue for the currency.

“When lawmakers are willing to risk funding for core state functions to advance political disputes, global investors reassess how risk-free US assets really are. Marginal shifts in perception translate into large moves in FX markets.”

He highlights how shutdown episodes inject uncertainty into the macro outlook.

“Shutdowns disrupt data releases, delay public-sector activity, and freeze government contracts. Markets dislike information vacuums. When data go dark, volatility rises and investors seek stability elsewhere,” notes Nigel Green.

He adds that the current standoff around immigration enforcement and federal agency funding deepens the sense of institutional fragmentation.

“Policy disputes escalating into funding crises signal governance risk. Governance risk feeds directly into currency risk,” he says.

Nigel Green stresses the fiscal implications of repeated shutdown threats.

“Each shutdown or near-shutdown episode imposes real economic costs through lost output, delayed spending, and weaker business confidence. Over time, these costs compound and influence debt dynamics,” he explains.

“Higher deficits without a credible fiscal framework undermine currency credibility.”

He links shutdown brinkmanship with broader diversification trends among global reserve managers.

Central banks have been reducing dollar reserves in favour of gold and other currencies for years. Political shocks accelerate that process by reinforcing the perception of US political risk.

“Global investors hedge dollar exposure during fiscal confrontations. Equity markets can treat Washington drama as background noise, but currency markets respond quickly,” he says.

Nigel Green also connects shutdown risk to monetary policy expectations.

“Political dysfunction complicates the policy outlook. Fiscal uncertainty can weigh on growth and push the Federal Reserve toward a more accommodative stance, which tends to weaken the dollar.

“Relative policy expectations drive FX markets, and uncertainty around US governance affects those expectations.” 

He argues that the current environment encourages capital to seek alternatives.

“Capital flows toward jurisdictions with predictable policy frameworks. Europe, parts of Asia, and emerging markets with credible fiscal regimes attract flows when US politics appear unstable.

“The anti-dollar trade reflects a global search for policy certainty.”

Nigel Green cautions that repeated shutdown threats could have long-term implications for US financial leadership.

“The US has benefited from an exorbitant privilege rooted in trust. Trust accumulates slowly and erodes quickly.

“Each shutdown threat chips away at that trust, and marginal shifts matter in currency markets.”

The dollar remains dominant and the world's primary reserve currency, yet vulnerability is increasing.

Nigel Green concludes with a stark outlook for policymakers.

“If shutdown brinkmanship becomes even more routine, investors will continue to diversify away from the dollar, and reversing that shift will be difficult.

“Currency leadership rests on credibility, and credibility erodes when governance looks unstable.”

deVere Group is one of the world's largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices around the world, more than 80,000 clients, and $14bn under advisement.

Port-au-Prince, January 29, 2026 – Sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) has surged in Haiti's capital since 2021 and is being used systematically to terrorize the population, with a disproportionate impact on women and girls, according to a report released today by Médecins Sans Frontières/Doctors Without Borders (MSF). This crisis is occurring as infrastructure, public services, and living conditions have deteriorated dramatically amid widespread violence and insecurity.

MSF's report, “Sexual and gender-based violence in Port-au-Prince, Haiti,” is based on 10 years of medical data and testimonies collected at MSF's Pran Men'm clinic. Since MSF opened the clinic in 2015, it has provided comprehensive medical and psychosocial care to nearly 17,000 people, 98% of whom are women and girls.

“The number of survivors of sexual and gender-based violence who receive care at the clinic has almost tripled from an average of 95 admissions per month in 2021 to more than 250 in 2025,” said Diana Manilla Arroyo, MSF head of mission in Haiti. “This shows how the explosion of violence in Haiti in recent years has had a direct impact on the bodies of women and girls in Port-au-Prince.”

The report shows that women and girls of all ages are being targeted, and that a growing number of survivors are displaced from their homes, which exposes them to further violence. Nearly one-fifth of the survivors treated at Pran Men'm have suffered multiple incidents of SGBV.

There also has been a shocking increase in the brutality of the violence. Among survivors who have received care at Pran Men'm since 2022, 57% reported being assaulted by members of armed groups, often in the context of group assaults committed by multiple perpetrators. More than 100 patients reported being assaulted by 10 or more perpetrators at a time.

“They beat me and broke my teeth…” said one 53-year-old survivor quoted in the report. “Three young men who could have been my children…. When I refused to sleep with them, they hit me and I fell. While I was struggling, they kicked me in the back, which still hurts months later. After raping me, they raped my daughter… and beat my husband.”

The report highlights the persistent shortcomings in the availability of services for survivors MSF is often unable to refer its patients to essential non-medical assistance—such as safe shelters, relocation options, or livelihood support—which are indispensable for many survivors. This situation underscores the urgent need to strengthen and sustain funding for protection services.

Survivors also face numerous barriers—such as fear of stigma, financial difficulties, insecurity, and lack of information—that prevent them from accessing care in a timely manner, which unfortunately has medical consequences. Since 2022, only one-third of survivors who consulted the Pran Men’m clinic arrived at the clinic within three days of their assault: beyond this timeframe, it is no longer possible to prevent HIV transmission. Similarly, 59% of our patients during this period were unable to access care within five days in order to protect themselves from unwanted pregnancy.

This report calls for urgent and coordinated action by Haitian authorities, service providers, donors, United Nations agencies, and security actors in favor of a survivor-centered response focused on long-term recovery.

“We call for expanded access to comprehensive medical and psychosocial care free of charge, which can only be achieved through a sustainable increase in funding for support services,” Manilla Arroyo said. “Equally important, we call for unequivocal recognition of the widespread nature of sexual violence and its deliberate use by armed groups as a tool to control and subjugate women and girls. These are the challenges that must be addressed to empower survivors to regain control of their bodies and their lives.”

Link to report: Sexual and gender based violence in Port au Prince, Haiti, January 2026 https://www.msf.org/report-sexual-and-gender-based-violence-port-au-prince

MSF is an international, medical, humanitarian organisation that delivers medical care to people in need, regardless of their origin, religion, or political affiliation.  MSF Australia was established in 1995 and is one of 24 international MSF sections committed to delivering medical humanitarian assistance to people in crisis. Every year more than 120 Australians and New Zealanders go on assignment with Médecins Sans Frontières  working as: doctors, midwives, psychologists, laboratory technicians, human resource/finance coordinators, pharmacists, mental health specialists and logisticians. MSF delivers medical care based on need alone and operates independently of government, religion or economic influence and irrespective of race, religion or gender. For more information visit msf.org.au  

Alpha HPA Limited (ASX: A4N) is pleased to announce that the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation (NRFC) has approved a $75 million investment in the Company, supporting delivery of the HPA First Project in Gladstone, Queensland.

The NRFC investment was made as a cornerstone commitment in a $225 million funding round, acting as a catalyst to successfully crowd in a further $150 million from institutional investors, which included on-going support from Orica Limited & AustralianSuper to complete the raise.

The investment is strongly complementary to Alpha HPA's existing long-term funding support from the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF), Export Finance Australia (EFA) and Queensland Investment Corporation (QIC), and follows NRFC's comprehensive due diligence process. It reflects strong alignment with the Fund's mandate to support Australian manufacturing capability, value-adding, supply chain resilience and economic sovereignty.

Alpha HPA's Managing Director Rob Williamson said the investment was a significant milestone for both the Company and Australia's advanced manufacturing sector.

“NRFC's investment is a strong endorsement of Alpha HPA's strategy, technology and role in building sovereign manufacturing capability in Australia,” Mr Williamson said.

“High Purity Alumina is a critical input into semiconductors, lithium-ion batteries and pharmaceutical manufacturing, where ultra-high purity materials are essential for performance, safety and reliability. Our Gladstone HPA First Project positions Australia as a trusted supplier into diversified global supply chains.”

Mr Williamson said the project would deliver substantial economic and employment benefits for regional Queensland.

“Alpha HPA currently employs around 130 people, and once operational in 2027 the HPA First Project will create approximately 120 additional full-time jobs,” he said.

“During construction, the project is expected to generate more than 420 jobs, supporting skills development and long-term industrial capability in Gladstone.”

Mr Williamson said the Gladstone location provided a strong industrial foundation for the project.

“Gladstone is already home to globally significant industrial operators and offers established infrastructure, a skilled workforce and a deep industrial ecosystem,” he said.

“The facility builds on this foundation, reinforcing Gladstone's role as a hub for next-generation, low-emissions manufacturing.”

The HPA First Project is designed to operate on 100 per cent renewable electricity, using Alpha HPA's proprietary processing technology. The process delivers near-zero waste, low-emissions production and a purity profile that differentiates Alpha HPA globally.

“We are now in the supply chain for semiconductors for AI at small volumes with production from our Stage One facility thanks to the technological advantage our unique process offers over our competitors.” Mr Williamson said.

“The unique selling point of our materials is what underpins customer demand and positions Alpha HPA as a long-term supplier of choice into these expanding, critical global markets.”

NRFC Chief Executive Officer David Gall said the investment reflected the strategic and national importance of Alpha HPA's project.

“This investment backs a truly innovative Australian company while also strengthening Australia's economic security and supply chain resilience around a critical material that is essential to the future economy,” Mr Gall said.

“The National Reconstruction Fund is delighted to support an Australian company commercialising breakthrough intellectual property to produce materials that Australia and the world will increasingly rely on.”

Alpha HPA emphasised that the NRFC investment complements its existing funding arrangements and reflects continued confidence from senior debt financiers and institutional investors.

Export Finance Australia (EFA) Managing Director and CEO John Hopkins reinforced the value of the HPA First Project.

“EFA welcomes the next step in Alpha HPA's investment and financing arrangements. We look forward to continuing to work with Alpha HPA, which is receiving support through the Australian Government's critical minerals facility and our own commercial account,” Mr Hopkins said.

Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF) Chief Executive Officer Craig Doyle said the NRFC support reinforces the strategic importance of the Gladstone development, and NAIF is pleased to see the NRFC become a shareholder while continuing to proudly support the HPA First Project.

“NRFC's participation reflects growing confidence in a project that will deliver jobs, skills and advanced manufacturing capability in regional Queensland,” Mr Doyle said.

Alpha HPA noted that the capital raising reflects the opportunity to strengthen the balance sheet, accelerate delivery and position the Company for future growth.

“Demand fundamentals across semiconductors and other advanced manufacturing continue to strengthen,” Mr Williamson said.

“As the HPA First Project progresses, Alpha HPA is also assessing opportunities to expand the project through a potential third stage, reflecting customer interest and the scalability of our technology platform.”

Settlement of the institutional placement is expected following completion of the capital raising process.

An impressive line-up of leading international and Australian refugee advocates will headline this year’s second Refugee Communities Association of Australia (RCAA) National Conference.

Iranian Kurdish journalist, human rights defender and writer Behrouz Boochani and former UNHCR Assistant Commissioner and former President of the Australian Human Rights Commission Dr Gilian Triggs are among the keynote speakers at the conference held at the Adelaide Festival Centre on March 25 and 26.

Mr Boochani was held in the Manus Island detention centre in Papua New Guinea between 2013 and its closure in 2017. He now lives in New Zealand where he is a research fellow at the University of Canterbury.

Also speaking at the conference will be Noor Azizah, the Co-Executive Director of the Rohingya Maìyafuìnor Collaborative Network Noor Azizah, Co-Secretary General Asia Pacific Refugee Rights Network Hafsar Tameesuddin, Chief Executive Officer, Scanlon Foundation Research Institute Anthea Hancocks, CEO for Centre for Multicultural Youth Carmel Guerra OAM and Executive Director of the Australian Multicultural Foundation Hass Dellal AO.

The conference will focus on facilitating conversations, sharing knowledge, and increasing awareness of the lived experiences of new and emerging communities, migrants, and multicultural communities as well as highlighting their contributions to Australia.

Under the theme “Empowering Refugees and Multicultural Communities Together”, the conference will explore how refugee communities move beyond initial settlement to multicultural leadership, ensuring their voices actively influence policies, services, and decision-making at all levels.

The long-term goal of RCAA is to establish a framework fostering a self-reliant, progressive, and culturally inclusive approach, strengthening refugee leadership through policy, advocacy, support, capacity building, and working with all stakeholders.

The conference is expected to bring together more than 250 delegates, representing more than 50 organisations. Attendees will include new and emerging communities, multicultural communities, refugee organisations, service providers, policymakers, academics, businesses, and representatives from all levels of government.

The conference will serve as a platform for meaningful engagement, collaboration, and innovation in multicultural leadership and integration. The conference will provide an opportunity to:

Advance multicultural leadership and amplify their voices within Australian society
Promote awareness of the contributions of refugee communities to the social and economic wellbeing, and rich cultural fabric of Australia
Foster dialogue that encourages the exchange of knowledge, ideas, and solutions between new and emerging communities, service providers, and policymakers
Strengthen the advocacy capacity of ‘lived experience’ led organisations and build a stronger, more cohesive network
Develop a foundation of lived experience and evidence-based insights to shape policy and service delivery

RCAA Chair Parsu Sharma Luital said the conference would also feature case studies of successful multicultural sector led initiatives and examine how their approaches can be adapted and implemented by other agencies to enhance their leadership and support systems.

“It will also celebrate the role of lived experience in shaping service provision, employment pathways, and community programs and explore opportunities for partnerships between new and emerging communities, service providers, businesses, and government agencies,” Mr Sharma Luital said.

A conference dinner will honour the rich cultural diversity of South Australia and celebrate the contributions of multicultural communities from across Australia.

Bringing together delegates, community leaders, and stakeholders, the dinner will be a night of connection, recognition, and cultural appreciation, reflecting the strength and resilience of our diverse communities.

Conference website and registration link: https://rcaaconference2026.com.au/registration/

About RCAA

The RCAA is Australia’s first membership-based, refugee-led organisation (RLO), distinguished by its strong grassroots foundation and extensive reach with refugee communities and key stakeholders. RCAA unites over 70 member organisations nationwide and thousands of individuals, each embodying the resilience, strength, and rich diversity of refugee communities.

Together, RCAA forms a collective force that amplifies diverse voices, advocates for systemic change, and strengthens the already rich fabric of Australia’s multiculturalism. With leadership drawn directly from those with lived experience, RCAA ensures that policies and programs impacting these communities are shaped by those with lived experience.

January 28 2026 – The Federal Reserve should have cut rates today (Wednesday), and not doing so puts the US economy at risk, warns the CEO of financial advisory giant deVere Group.

The warning from Nigel Green comes as the US central bank leaves the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% at its January policy meeting, extending a pause after three cuts in 2025, even as signs of economic deceleration intensify.

Fresh data underline growing fragility in the US economy. Consumer confidence dropped in January to 84.5, the lowest level since 2014, with the expectations index at 65.1, a level historically associated with recession risk.

Hiring momentum has slowed sharply, with employers adding only about 50,000 jobs in December and just over half a million jobs across 2025, far below the pace of the previous year.

Inflation pressures continue to ease, with headline CPI ending 2025 around 2.7% year on year and core PCE near 3%, trending lower.

“Keeping rates on hold today is a policy error that risks tightening financial conditions by default at the very moment the economy is losing momentum,” says Nigel Green.

“A modest cut would have been prudent risk management, not a retreat from inflation discipline.”

He points first to the labor market, which he describes as the clearest early warning signal in the current cycle.

“Unemployment remains low at 4.4%, but the headline masks a sharp slowdown in hiring.

“The US added only about 50,000 jobs in December, far below levels needed to absorb population growth. This is a classic low-hire environment that can flip into job losses with little warning.”

He argues that central banks tend to react too late to labour market turning points.

“History teaches us that monetary policy works with long lags. Waiting for payrolls to collapse before acting means easing arrives after the damage has already compounded.”

Consumer sentiment is another warning signal. US consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level since 2014, with households citing anxiety about inflation, jobs, politics, and trade.

“Confidence drives spending, credit demand, and housing turnover. When sentiment collapses this sharply, real economic activity usually follows,” notes the deVere CEO.

He adds that inflation dynamics now give policymakers room to act.

“Headline inflation ended 2025 in the high-2% range and core inflation is near 3%. Inflation remains elevated, but it's no longer accelerating.

“The trajectory matters more than the level, and the trajectory is down.

He continues: “Policy credibility is often misinterpreted as toughness. Credibility is accuracy. Holding policy too tight as growth cools risks turning restraint into overkill.”

Current rates are already close to estimates of neutral. The policy rate is in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, which is not far from neutral according to many models.

“Maintaining a restrictive stance in a cooling economy is a recipe for an avoidable downturn,” he says.

He also highlights financial conditions as an underappreciated risk.

“Markets are pricing fewer than two rate cuts this year. If inflation continues to drift lower while policy stays fixed, real rates rise automatically. That is passive tightening without a single hike,” says Nigel Green.

“A small cut today would prevent policy from becoming restrictive by inertia.”

The balance of risks, he argues, has shifted.

“When inflation flares, the central bank can respond quickly. When hiring freezes spread and confidence collapses, repairing the labour market takes far longer and costs far more,” he explains.

“The employment side of the mandate is now closer to a turning point than inflation.”

He rejects the argument that economic resilience justifies inaction.

“Resilience is backward-looking. Central banking must be forward-looking. Waiting for undeniable weakness is how policymakers end up cutting aggressively in recessions rather than gently in expansions.

He concludes: “A pause often looks safe in the meeting room and dangerous in hindsight.

“Failing to cut can be expected to increase the odds the Fed is forced into deeper, faster easing later, after growth and employment have already deteriorated further.”

deVere Group is one of the world's largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices around the world, more than 80,000 clients, and $14bn under advisement.

Asia and the Pacific remained a central driver of global trade and investment in 2025, despite slowing momentum amid rising geopolitical and policy uncertainties. The Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Briefs 2025/26, released by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), show that tariff anticipation and digital investment drove a temporary upswing in trade last year while firms also sought to rebalance and diversify.

Merchandise trade sees temporary uplift amid tariff anticipation

Global merchandise export volume grew by 2.8 per cent in 2025, fuelled by strong demand and front-loading of shipments ahead of anticipated tariff increases. Export shipments from Asia and the Pacific also increased, although regional growth slowed to 3.3 per cent, still outpacing the global average. However, falling prices and intensified competition limited financial gains.

Trade expansion was uneven across subregions. Electronics-led export growth was concentrated in East Asia and South-East Asia, while South and South-West Asia experienced a decline of around 2 per cent. Although intra‑regional trade remained a key anchor, supply chains increasingly prioritized risk diversification over cost efficiency, with firms accelerating reshoring and nearshoring toward the United States and the European Union alongside broadening supply chains locations.

Regional trade growth is projected to drop to around 0.6 per cent in 2026 due to rising geopolitical tensions and restrictive trade policies.

Digital services exports expand, traditional sectors slow down

Commercial services trade in Asia and the Pacific continued to outperform merchandise trade in 2025, although growth lagged behind the global recovery. Services exports rose by 5.4 per cent, reflecting weak sentiment in major economies such as Japan and China. Services firms are diversifying into South-East Asia and India as alternative hubs to mitigate supply chain vulnerabilities.

All subregions recorded export growth, led by East and North-East Asia at 7 per cent, while growth in the Pacific remained modest at around 1 per cent.

Modern services powered export gains, led by telecom, ICT and computer services (13 per cent), and business and financial services (11 per cent). Travel and transport posted solid gains but lost momentum. Construction services fell sharply by 11 per cent amid a real estate downturn.

Intra-regional services trade strengthened further, accounting for around 21 per cent of exports and driven by South-East Asian exports to East Asia. 2026 growth projections remain positive at 4.4 per cent for services exports, buoyed by digital services.  

The world's hub for trade agreements

Asia and the Pacific accounted for 61 per cent of all active preferential trade agreements worldwide, with 258 agreements presented in the region. In 2025, 12 new agreements were signed, with continued expansion of Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and ASEAN frameworks and growing engagement with partners in Europe and the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Sustainability and supply chain resilience provisions were included in 158 agreements. The region also continued to lead digital trade rule-making, participating in 12 of the world's 16 Digital Trade Agreements. Issue-based arrangements and mini-FTAs expanded further to support targeted cooperation and de-risking.

Looking ahead, ESCAP notes the need to harmonize fragmented rules and ensure inclusive participation for less developed economies, while strengthening regional cooperation mechanisms that reinforce the global rules-based system.

FDI becomes more selective adjusting to new realities

Greenfield foreign direct investment announcements in terms of capital investment pledges in Asia and the Pacific fell by 21 per cent to $253 billion, but the number of project announcements reached near-record levels indicating capital intensity and scale are decreasing more than the general appetite for international operations in the region. South-East Asia remained the top destination at $74.4 billion.

India was the largest individual target economy at $50 billion, followed by Australia at $30 billion and Republic of Korea at $25 billion. The Republic of Korea saw the largest surge with a 303 per cent increase in investment commitments. Services accounted for more than 60 per cent of FDI projects, led by ICT and renewable energy. Manufacturing investment shifted toward metals in part driven by demand for renewable power and advanced technologies, while the primary sector continued to decline. Market proximity motivated 52 per cent of project announcements, and FDI trends also show a shift from low-cost efficiency to 'innovation-seeking'.

NOTES:
The Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Trends 2025/26 briefs are part of an annual series produced by ESCAP to support policymakers in developing short-to-medium term plans to mitigate adverse impacts from emerging risks and uncertainties in the global and regional economies.  

Access the full reports: https://www.unescap.org/knowledge-products-series/APTIT

The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) is the most inclusive intergovernmental platform in the Asia-Pacific region. The Commission promotes cooperation among its 53 member States and 9 associate members in pursuit of solutions to sustainable development challenges. ESCAP is one of the five regional commissions of the United Nations.