Author: MIL-OSI Publisher

Source: AMES

An impressive line-up of leading international and Australian refugee advocates will headline this year’s second Refugee Communities Association of Australia (RCAA) National Conference.

Iranian Kurdish journalist, human rights defender and writer Behrouz Boochani and former UNHCR Assistant Commissioner and former President of the Australian Human Rights Commission Dr Gilian Triggs are among the keynote speakers at the conference held at the Adelaide Festival Centre on March 25 and 26.

Mr Boochani was held in the Manus Island detention centre in Papua New Guinea between 2013 and its closure in 2017. He now lives in New Zealand where he is a research fellow at the University of Canterbury.

Also speaking at the conference will be Noor Azizah, the Co-Executive Director of the Rohingya Maìyafuìnor Collaborative Network Noor Azizah, Co-Secretary General Asia Pacific Refugee Rights Network Hafsar Tameesuddin, Chief Executive Officer, Scanlon Foundation Research Institute Anthea Hancocks, CEO for Centre for Multicultural Youth Carmel Guerra OAM and Executive Director of the Australian Multicultural Foundation Hass Dellal AO.

The conference will focus on facilitating conversations, sharing knowledge, and increasing awareness of the lived experiences of new and emerging communities, migrants, and multicultural communities as well as highlighting their contributions to Australia.

Under the theme “Empowering Refugees and Multicultural Communities Together”, the conference will explore how refugee communities move beyond initial settlement to multicultural leadership, ensuring their voices actively influence policies, services, and decision-making at all levels.

The long-term goal of RCAA is to establish a framework fostering a self-reliant, progressive, and culturally inclusive approach, strengthening refugee leadership through policy, advocacy, support, capacity building, and working with all stakeholders.

The conference is expected to bring together more than 250 delegates, representing more than 50 organisations. Attendees will include new and emerging communities, multicultural communities, refugee organisations, service providers, policymakers, academics, businesses, and representatives from all levels of government.

The conference will serve as a platform for meaningful engagement, collaboration, and innovation in multicultural leadership and integration. The conference will provide an opportunity to:

Advance multicultural leadership and amplify their voices within Australian society
Promote awareness of the contributions of refugee communities to the social and economic wellbeing, and rich cultural fabric of Australia
Foster dialogue that encourages the exchange of knowledge, ideas, and solutions between new and emerging communities, service providers, and policymakers
Strengthen the advocacy capacity of ‘lived experience’ led organisations and build a stronger, more cohesive network
Develop a foundation of lived experience and evidence-based insights to shape policy and service delivery

RCAA Chair Parsu Sharma Luital said the conference would also feature case studies of successful multicultural sector led initiatives and examine how their approaches can be adapted and implemented by other agencies to enhance their leadership and support systems.

“It will also celebrate the role of lived experience in shaping service provision, employment pathways, and community programs and explore opportunities for partnerships between new and emerging communities, service providers, businesses, and government agencies,” Mr Sharma Luital said.

A conference dinner will honour the rich cultural diversity of South Australia and celebrate the contributions of multicultural communities from across Australia.

Bringing together delegates, community leaders, and stakeholders, the dinner will be a night of connection, recognition, and cultural appreciation, reflecting the strength and resilience of our diverse communities.

Conference website and registration link: https://rcaaconference2026.com.au/registration/

About RCAA

The RCAA is Australia’s first membership-based, refugee-led organisation (RLO), distinguished by its strong grassroots foundation and extensive reach with refugee communities and key stakeholders. RCAA unites over 70 member organisations nationwide and thousands of individuals, each embodying the resilience, strength, and rich diversity of refugee communities.

Together, RCAA forms a collective force that amplifies diverse voices, advocates for systemic change, and strengthens the already rich fabric of Australia’s multiculturalism. With leadership drawn directly from those with lived experience, RCAA ensures that policies and programs impacting these communities are shaped by those with lived experience.

Source: Solomon Islands Government

The North Guadalcanal Constituency (NGC) Office, under the leadership of Honourable Dr. Paul Bosawai, continues to render unwavering support to churches— a commitment that guarantees churches can thrive and serve their congregations effectively.

This commitment is part of the NGC office's ongoing efforts to recognize the vital role that churches play in brining hope, unity, and service within the communities of NGC.

Last month, NGC gave a financial assistance worth $124,000.00 to Christ the King, Tetere Parish Catholic Church.

The funds will be used to expand the Parish Community Hall and Chapel, creating more space for community gatherings, worship, and social activities. This will help strengthen unity and community spirit.

The office also supplied 25 solar-powered security lighting systems to Good Shepherd Cathedral, worth $100,000.00 This initiative aims to improve community safety and security, ensuring a safer environment for parishioners and residents.

Constituency Development Officer (CDO) Simon Ngoli said that these efforts demonstrate the NGC under the leadership of Hon. Dr. Bosawai’s dedication to supporting churches.

“Churches play a vital role in bringing hope, unity, and service to our communities. Therefore, we remain committed to providing resources wherever possible to help them succeed in their mission,” he said.

CDO Ngoli added,“In difficult times, churches are more important than ever as centres of hope and community. They are the pillars of society, and it’s our responsibility to support their work. Our goal is to help churches continue their vital role and reach more people.”

The supports were made possible with funding from the Solomon Islands Government through the Ministry of Rural Development, the Constituency Development Program (CDP), under the NGC office’s 2025 CDF budget allocation, in compliance with Section 26 (2)(d) and (3)(d) of the CDF Act 2023. 

Source: Equinor

16 JANUARY 2026 – The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia today granted Empire Offshore Wind LLC (Empire) a preliminary injunction that allows construction activities to resume on the Outer Continental Shelf for the Empire Wind project.

The underlying lawsuit challenging the U.S. Department of the Interior’s December 22, 2025 suspension order will continue to proceed.

Empire Wind will now focus on safely restarting construction activities that were halted during the suspension period. In addition, the project will continue to engage with the U.S. government to ensure the safe, secure and responsible execution of its operations.

Empire Wind is being developed under contract with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) to deliver a critical new, near-term source of electricity for New York and bolster grid reliability at a time of rapidly growing demand. Once completed, the project would provide enough power to electrify approximately 500,000 homes in New York.

Source: Solomon Islands Government

…as PRC-funded RSDP continues vital assistance for socio-economic development and poverty alleviation in rural communities of Solomon Islands

The People's Republic of China, in partnership with the Ministry of Rural Development (MRD), on 18 December 2025, officially handed over project support valued at $1.5 million to the North East Guadalcanal Constituency (NEGC).  

This assistance includes three brand-new tractors and materials, which include 4,290 cement bags, 3,000 steel rods (12mm), 1,980 steel rods (6mm), 20 wheelbarrows, 200 mesh wire F62 sheets, 50 black plastic rolls, and 5 rolls of tie-wire.  

The tractors, which come with their fittings, are few of the biggest-ever MASSEY Ferguson 4WD Agricultural Tractors in the country. They are envisioned to support agricultural development in the constituency, while the hardware materials are for infrastructure development—specifically roads, bridges, footpaths, and churches within communities of NEGC.  

Aimed at boosting the constituency’s agricultural production and enhancing the socio-economic livelihoods of communities, the initiative reflects the PRC’s ongoing commitment for sustainable community development and empowerment through strategic projects that drive community improvements and self-sufficiency across the Solomon Islands. The agriculture machineries go hand in hand with works on the improvement and rehabilitation of road infrastructures in the constituency to improve market and services accesses for NEGC.

The project goods and materials were received by the Member of Parliament for NEGC, Honourable Jamie Vokia, on behalf of his people, from the Chinese Embassy representative in Solomon Islands, Counsellor Li Qinghua.  

“I am really grateful for this generous support,” Hon. Minister Vokia said, expressing profound gratitude on behalf of his people of NEGC to PRC.  

Farmers in the constituency (NEGC) are some of the main suppliers of fresh garden food to the Honiara markets. These tractors will play a crucial role in supporting them (farmers) to be able to expand their farmlands, improving farm efficiency thereby increasing production, incomes, and improved livelihoods.  

Hon. Minister Vokia said that the tractors are a major boost and a realization of their development plan.  

“Thank you so much for these tractors. It is in our constituency development plan that we are envisioning expansion of farmlands and increasing production. Increasing production is all we want, and with the help of these tractors, farmers will expand their farm sizes which subsequently will also lead to increased household income as well as contribution to food security,” Hon. Vokia said.  

“The NEGC is so lucky because these are the biggest tractors in the country at the moment. This means that the constituency is serious and thoughtful about the future of its people and communities. We can do it,” he added.  “Additionally, we also need good roads to access the market and other vital services, so part of this funding will be committed to road construction materials to support our maintenance and rehabilitation of feeder roads in the constituency.”

Hon Vokia further stated that as their MP, he will ensure the constituency office continues to work in partnership with development partners to support initiatives that will bring prosperity and self-sufficiency for everyone in the constituency.  

Hon. Vokia also called on his people for unity to progress the constituency’s development aspirations and foster social and economic development. This aligns with the Chinese proverb: “When people unite as one, even mountains can be moved.”  

He highlighted the importance of partnership, noting that community efforts combined with PRC and Solomon Islands Government support are key to achieving tangible development outcomes.  

The Honourable Minister expressed his deep gratitude to the PRC government and its people for their generous support through RSDP.  

Counsellor Li Qinghua of the Chinese Embassy, in her remarks, congratulated the constituency on receiving the support and emphasized China’s ongoing commitment to supporting Solomon Islands’ socio-economic development through projects like RSDP.  

Ms. Li emphasized that RSDP is not just a development project but a partnership rooted in empowerment, aiming to enable local communities to become self-reliant.  

China’s support extends beyond infrastructure; it includes capacity-building and training programs designed to transfer knowledge and skills to Solomon Islands’ citizens, thus fostering sustainable development.  

Counsellor Li reaffirmed PRC’s dedication to strengthening the country’s socio-economic resilience through its various development supports in Solomon Islands.  

“Because most of the Solomon Islands’ people—about 80 percent—live in remote areas, development in rural areas is very important. I am glad to confirm China’s steadfast commitment to supporting constituencies with their development initiatives to improve livelihoods and alleviate poverty in rural communities,” she said.  

“…China’s achievement in lifting 800 million people out of poverty is based on a people-oriented principle with dedication, and devotion of all officials, as well as a focus on the natural conditions of each village. The most practical and suitable methods are adopted for each village to improve livelihoods.  

“I believe that here in the Solomon Islands, each constituency has its own local conditions and advantages. Therefore, the best approach is to adopt methods most suitable to the local conditions. RSDP will help each constituency find its path to achieve common development and prosperity. Sharing is caring, and we look forward to sharing China’s experience in poverty alleviation with the Solomon Islands,” Ms. Li underscored.  

“I firmly believe that with support from the government and the people of the Solomon Islands, we can turn poverty alleviation into reality.”  

Ms. Li reiterated that the handover demonstrates practical cooperation between the PRC and Solomon Islands under RSDP, further strengthening the bilateral relationship.  

She also highlighted the importance of partnership and working together to achieve greater outcomes.  

“Projects under RSDP are proposal-based and will be implemented and monitored strictly in partnership with MRD to maximize benefits for the people of each constituency. It is our shared responsibility to ensure projects are implemented properly to deliver tangible and actionable results for rural communities,” she concluded.  

Community members of NEGC who attended the handover ceremony expressed their full support for the project and deep appreciation to the PRC government and its people for their generous support.  

The RSDP is a partnership program between the PRC and the Solomon Islands Government through the Ministry of Rural Development. Since 2023, China has actively supported RSDP, which is proposal-based and implemented by the Ministry of Rural Development in partnership with the Chinese Embassy.  

The program aligns with China’s broader Global Development Initiative, including the Belt and Road Initiative, and supports Solomon Islands’ National Development Strategy (NDS) 2016–2035.  

The RSDP primarily targets rural and semi-urban communities, aiming to improve social and economic infrastructure, promote income-generating activities, and address issues such as food security and climate resilience.

Source: Commonwealth Bank of Australia – CBA

Entertaining and eating out made a Christmas comeback at the end of 2025, as the end of energy rebates sparked higher spending on utilities.

15 January 2026 – Key points

Hospitality spending rose 0.7%, continuing gains from November, up 7.1% over the year.
Food and beverage spending jumped 1% in December, the biggest lift since April.
Spending momentum supports expectation for RBA rate hike in February.

Australians opened their wallets in the lead-up to Christmas, splashing out on butchers, liquor stores and dining out as festive entertaining took centre stage, according to the latest CommBank Household Spending Insights. Food and beverage spending recorded its strongest monthly rise since April, up 1 per cent, while hospitality lifted 0.7 per cent for the second consecutive month.

Spending streak continues

The HSI index rose 0.7 per cent in December, marking 15 months of consecutive gains. Annual growth sits at 6.3 per cent, suggesting real household consumption is tracking slightly above expectations.

“The strength in household spending late in the year was more robust than anticipated and points to a willingness to spend that exceeds our earlier forecasts,” Belinda Allen, Head of Australian Economics, said.

“This momentum adds to concerns the economy may be running above its speed limit, supporting our expectation for a February rate hike.”

Utilities surge as rebates expire

Utilities saw the sharpest increase in spending in December, up 6.4 per cent as government energy rebates expired, boosting annual growth in utilities spending to 15 per cent.

Communications and digital spending climbed 0.7 per cent, driven by streaming and mobile services, while transport costs rose 0.5 per cent, fuelled by higher petrol prices and increased ride-sharing activity. Recreation eased to 0.2 per cent growth in the month after a bumper November driven by major sporting and concert events.

State-by-state trends show WA leading

Western Australia led the monthly gains, up 0.9 per cent, followed by Queensland at 0.7 per cent. New South Wales and Victoria recorded softer growth of just 0.1 per cent. Over the year, WA and Queensland remain standout performers, with annual growth above 8 per cent.

What does this mean for interest rates?

The Reserve Bank of Australia will closely household spending data and the upcoming December quarter CPI release on 28 January. Strong spending is contributing to inflation and could reinforce the case for tighter policy as inflation risks persist.

“The Australian economy is at or above its speed limit and the RBA will be weighing up whether this momentum risks pushing inflation higher,” Allen said. “The upcoming CPI print will be critical in determining the timing of any rate hike.”

Source: Equinor

14 JANUARY 2026 – Equinor has been awarded 35 new production licenses by the Ministry of Energy in this year's APA, Awards in Predefined Areas.

Equinor will gain access to attractive acreage in the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea, strengthening the foundation for the company's exploration activity, production and long-term value creation on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS).

Twenty-one of the awards are located in the North Sea, ten in the Norwegian Sea, and four in the Barents Sea, 17 of the licences with Equinor as an operator.

“We are very pleased with the APA round, which facilitates our plans for a continued high level of activity within exploration. A strong year has been completed with 14 discoveries in 2025, 7 of them Equinor operated. This amounts to approximately 125 million barrels of new recoverable oil equivalent, with a potential for even more,” says Jez Averty, Equinor’s senior vice president for subsurface, the Norwegian continental shelf.

The licenses are awarded within areas with existing infrastructure and new areas.

“Our geological knowledge is high, and we are constantly learning more through further exploration. Awards in lesser-known areas, such as we have received in the northeastern part of the North Sea and in the southwestern Møre Basin, provide new and exciting opportunities,” says Averty.

Equinor plans to drill 20-30 exploration wells annually. 80 percent of the exploration will be near existing infrastructure, while 20 percent will explore new concepts and lesser-known areas.

Discovery and maturation of new resources are necessary for Equinor to develop 6-8 new subsea developments each year until 2035. This is a significant increase from the current level.

As Europe's largest energy provider, Equinor plays a key role in European energy security and energy transition.

“Access to new acreage is crucial for our ambition to maintain a high level of production and predictable energy deliveries to Europe from the NCS towards 2035. There is still a lot of energy left on the NCS, but we need new discoveries to curb the expected production decline. Phasing in oil and gas from new discoveries to existing infrastructure is a core task going forward,” Averty concludes.

Exploration on the NCS

• 2025 was a good exploration year for Equinor. 14 out of 31 wells (15 Equinor-operated) drilled in the 2025 exploration programme were successful (7 of these were operated by Equinor).
• To maintain the level of activity and slow the expected production decline on the Norwegian continental shelf, exploration and production drilling are absolutely essential.
• Equinor’s ambition is to maintain approximately the same production level in 2035 as in 2020. This corresponds to a production of 1.2 million barrels of oil and gas per day from the Norwegian continental shelf in 2035. This is ambitious and will require significant effort.
• Exploration on the Norwegian continental shelf is primarily about access to acreage. In the coming years, 80 percent of Equinor’s exploration will be near existing fields, while 20 percent of exploration campaigns will test new ideas or take place in less explored areas.
• Artificial intelligence and machine learning have enabled new technology for faster and more advanced seismic interpretation of subsurface data. This includes tools for optimized well planning, real-time decision-making, subsurface visualization, and automated seismic interpretation.
• As the largest supplier of energy to Europe, it is crucial that Equinor maintains a high level of exploration activity. With three gas processing plants, one oil refinery, two oil terminals, one LNG plant, and a pipeline network of nearly 9,000 kilometer, the Norwegian oil and gas infrastructure is strategically positioned for energy deliveries to Norway’s most important markets in the EU and the United Kingdom.

Source: Amnesty International

Responding to prosecutors seeking the death penalty for former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol over his imposition of martial law in December 2024, Amnesty International’s Chiara Sangiorgio said:

“No one is above the law, including a former president, but seeking the death penalty is a step backward. The death penalty is an inherently cruel, inhuman and irreversible punishment that has no place in a justice system that claims to respect human rights.

“Yoon’s imposition of martial law in December 2024 placed fundamental human rights at risk and has prompted prosecutors to seek his execution. While accountability is essential, pursuing the death penalty undermines the very principles of rights and human dignity that the rule of law is meant to protect.

“As a state party to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, South Korea should move toward abolition of the death penalty.”

Background

Former South Korean President Yoon is accused of leading an insurrection over his declaration of martial law in December 2024. The move was met with mass protests, and lawmakers forced their way into the National Assembly to vote to lift the martial law order within hours. Yoon was subsequently impeached and removed from office by the Constitutional Court.

Amnesty International opposes the death penalty unconditionally, in all circumstances.

Source: Commonwealth Bank of Australia – CBA

Our new research shows only four in ten can – but encouragingly the simple steps to help protect yourself stay the same, even against AI-powered scams.

13 January 2026 – Nearly nine in ten Australians (89%) are confident to some extent they can spot an AI-generated scam, but new research from CommBank shows the opposite is true – with Australians only able to correctly distinguish between real and AI-generated images 42% of the time, which is below the chance of a random guess. Australians aged over 65 are only 6% less accurate than those younger than them – showing that deepfakes can fool people of all ages.

At the same time, less than half of Australians (42%) are familiar with AI-enhanced scams, despite deepfakes exploding across social media platforms, websites, messaging apps, and telecommunication channels.

Deepfakes are new but the steps to protect yourself haven’t changed

James Roberts, General Manager of Group Fraud, said: “The findings reveal a growing gap between confidence and reality – and that gap is exactly what scammers are looking to exploit as they increasingly turn to AI to target everyday Australians and small businesses.”

He said Australians should not feel overwhelmed by the pace of technological change.

“The good news is that the steps that keep people safe don’t need to evolve at the same speed as the technology does. Deepfakes might be new, but the same tried-and-tested habits – slowing down, checking details and speaking with someone you know and trust, such as a family member, remains your best defence – even against AI-powered scams.”

Some of the the images below are real and some are generated by AI. Can you tell which are real and which are AI?

Previous SlideNext Slide

Deepfakes work because they exploit trust

Professor Monica Whitty, Professor of Human Factors in Cyber Security at Monash University – who is well-known for her work on the prevention, disruption, and detection of cyber fraud – says deepfakes tap into people’s natural instincts.

“Humans tend to trust faces, voices and familiar people. Deepfakes take advantage of that instinct.”

She said lack of open discussion increases vulnerability.

“The data shows that many Australians don’t talk openly about deepfake scams – with only a third discussing AI-generated scams with their relatives or friends. That means fewer opportunities to share warning signs or learn from others’ experiences.”

Despite nearly three-quarters of Australians (74%) agreeing that they should set up a safe word with their loved ones to confirm it’s really them, only one in five (20%) say they have set one up.

Roberts says having a simple way to verify who you’re speaking with is becoming increasingly important. “Scammers can fake voices now, so it’s okay to double-check. In fact, it’s smart.”

That’s also why CommBank introduced CallerCheck, allowing customers to verify whether a caller claiming to be from the bank is legitimate by triggering a security message in their CommBank app.

“Be vigilant. Educate yourself. And if things look suspicious talk with others about it,” Professor Whitty added.

What Australians and small businesses are experiencing

Around one in four (27%) Australians say they had witnessed a deepfake scam in the past year. The most common types were:

Investment scams (59%)
Business email compromise scams (40%) and
Relationship scams (38%).

Around four in ten (41%) small business owners are familiar with deepfake scams.

Small businesses reported that half of all deepfake scam attempts (50%) arrived by email, yet only 55% had cross-checked supplier payment details in the last six months.

Roberts said more open conversations at home and work are essential.

“Scammers are using AI to create fake investment videos, deepfake celebrities, and even voice and text clones of loved ones, senior executives and government officials. Talking openly about this technology is one of the easiest ways to help stay ahead of it.”

A national cross-sector effort is needed

Roberts says deepfakes require coordinated action across the scams’ ecosystem.

“We recognise the impact of scams on Australians and support the Australian Government’s Scam Prevention Framework to introduce obligations initially across banks, telcos and digital platforms. Deepfakes are showing up on social media, messaging platforms, websites and even through phone calls – and we welcome stronger protections across those industries, as well as banking.

“Deepfakes are new, but protecting yourself hasn’t changed – and with stronger protections across all channels, we can help keep more Australians safe,” Roberts added.

How to help protect yourself from deepfake scams

Roberts says the core approach remains unchanged.

“The principles of ‘Stop. Check. Reject.’ can still help beat even the most convincing AI-enhanced scams,” Roberts said.

Source: deVere Group

January 13, 2026 – Cooling core inflation is strengthening the case for interest rate cuts, as the latest US price data points to easing price pressure across the world's largest economy, warns the CEO of global financial advisory organisation deVere Group.

The comments from Nigel Green follow today's release of the December Consumer Price Index, which showed core inflation rising by just 0.2% on the month and 2.6% on an annual basis — both readings coming in below market expectations.

The softer outcome reinforces growing evidence that underlying inflation pressures continue to moderate.

Headline inflation rose by 0.3% in December, with the all-items annual rate holding at 2.7%, in line with forecasts.

While policymakers assess both measures, core inflation remains the preferred guide for long-term price trends, making today's data particularly significant for the direction of monetary policy.

Nigel Green says the figures underline how quickly the inflation picture has changed.

“Core inflation undershooting expectations sends a powerful signal that the disinflation process is gaining traction. Keeping rates at restrictive levels when underlying price pressures are easing risks doing unnecessary damage to growth.”

The CPI data follows Friday's employment report, which also showed signs of a softening labour market. Payroll growth slowed more than expected, while wage gains moderated, adding to the case that demand across the economy is cooling.

“The inflation data and the jobs numbers now tell the same story,” explains the deVere CEO.

“Price pressures are easing and the labor market is losing momentum. Policy needs to reflect where the economy is heading, not where it's been.”

The argument for easing now rests on three converging trends. Inflation no longer poses the same threat it did a year ago. Employment growth shows signs of fatigue. Financial conditions remain tight relative to the economic backdrop, keeping pressure on households and businesses.

“Rates remain calibrated for an inflation battle that's largely now been won,” Nigel Green says. “Maintaining this level of restriction risks turning a slowdown into something more severe.”

Higher borrowing costs continue to weigh heavily on consumers, particularly in housing, credit cards, and small business financing. While easing inflation offers relief at the checkout, tight monetary policy threatens to blunt those gains by suppressing confidence and investment.

International markets also feel the consequences of prolonged US policy restraint.

Elevated rates support a stronger dollar, tighten global financial conditions, and place added strain on emerging economies carrying dollar-denominated debt. A shift toward easing would help stabilise capital flows and ease pressure across international markets.

“The global economy is increasingly sensitive to US policy decisions. A move toward lower rates would support stability not only in America, but across the international financial system.”

Investors now see the risk profile shifting. The dominant threat appears less about inflation re-accelerating and more about policy remaining too tight for too long.

History shows that central banks often err by easing late rather than early, transforming manageable slowdowns into deeper downturns.

“Every cycle carries the danger of acting after the damage is done. The data now offers a chance to move before growth stalls more sharply,” concludes the deVere Group CEO.

deVere Group is one of the world's largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices around the world, more than 80,000 clients, and $14bn under advisement.

Source: deVere Group

January 13 2026 – Oil markets are starting to price “chaos rather than crude”, as traders rush to protect against a price surge driven by escalating tensions around Iran, warns the CEO of global financial advisory giant deVere Group.

The warning from Nigel Green comes as record demand for protection against rising oil prices shows traders are bracing for a sudden shock rather than normal market swings.

He says: “Oil traders are effectively placing bets on chaos. The rush into upside protection reads like a referendum on geopolitical stability — and the verdict is brutal.”

The deVere chief executive says markets are treating Iran as a potential systemic event rather than a contained regional risk.

“The scale of activity usually appears ahead of wars, sweeping sanctions, or regime-level disruption, not street protests.

“Traders appear to be positioning for a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz shifts from being a shipping route to a strategic pressure point capable of choking global supply.”

With US President Donald Trump warning of severe consequences for countries doing business with Tehran and openly discussing tougher measures, energy markets are responding first.

The premium building into oil prices reflects fear that escalation is becoming the dominant force in policy thinking.

“Energy prices are being set for crisis conditions, not inconvenience,” Nigel Green explains.

“Every call option bought reflects concern that restraint is losing ground to confrontation. History teaches us that when markets move first, politics often follows.”

While Iran sits at the centre of current anxiety, the wider supply picture only intensifies the sense of fragility.

Venezuela, long viewed as a potential source of additional barrels, remains constrained by political uncertainty, weak infrastructure, and fragile international relationships. Any expectation that easing pressure on Caracas can offset tightening pressure on Tehran looks increasingly unrealistic.

One sanctioned producer gaining marginal breathing room fails to compensate for the risk of another becoming further isolated.

Markets are, therefore, pricing oil for disruption rather than balance. Traders see a system where supply exists on paper but becomes unreliable in practice as shipping insurers raise premiums, financiers step back, and buyers hesitate. In such an environment, barrels do not need to disappear to push prices higher.

“Risk alone tightens the market,” he asserts.

Nigel Green says the danger lies in underestimating the speed of this process.

“Energy markets respond before any other asset class because they sit at the center of the global economy.

“Once oil reprices for conflict, the impact flows straight into inflation expectations, currency movements, and equity valuations.”

The implications stretch far beyond trading floors. A sustained geopolitical premium in oil feeds into transport costs, food prices, and household energy bills.

Governments face tougher fiscal choices as higher prices strain budgets and complicate trade policy.

Companies reliant on logistics and manufacturing see margins squeezed as fuel and shipping costs rise. Investors confront a world where volatility driven by politics spreads quickly across asset classes.

“Markets are preparing for a future where miscalculation carries a far higher price.

“Traders are positioning for escalation rather than stability, and that mindset reshapes everything from investor portfolio strategy to national economic planning.”

In this environment, “oil has become a signal of mounting instability,” concludes the deVere CEO. “And this signal points to markets preparing for escalation rather than equilibrium.”

deVere Group is one of the world's largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices around the world, more than 80,000 clients, and $14bn under advisement.