JULY 8 2025 – Elon Musk's announcement that his newly launched America Party will fully back Bitcoin marks a major leap in the digital asset's political legitimacy — and directly builds on the momentum initiated by the Trump administration earlier this year, says the CEO of one of the world's largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations.
Nigel Green of deVere Group says Musk's move signals that Bitcoin has decisively moved from the fringe of financial markets into the core of sovereign-level policy and mainstream political strategy.
“Musk is pushing Bitcoin deeper into public life, but this isn't a solo effort. He's stepping into a slipstream that was already building under the Trump administration,” says the deVere CEO.
“The world's richest entrepreneur is now amplifying what started as a federal shift, and in doing so, he can be expected to accelerate institutional adoption.”
In March, President Trump signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, formally placing seized Bitcoin into permanent federal custody. Managed jointly by the Treasury and Commerce Departments, this reserve is understood to hold more than 200,000 BTC — now valued in the tens of billions of dollars — placing Bitcoin alongside gold and oil in the United States' sovereign asset portfolio.
“This was a pivotal moment. It reframed Bitcoin from a volatile outsider to a recognised store of national value. It told global markets that the US no longer sees Bitcoin as a threat — but as an asset.”
That structural repositioning created the foundation for what Musk has now made political.
Musk's declaration that Bitcoin will be a core pillar of his America Party adds new velocity. It ext
Australia – New study maps key regions for killer whales in Australian waters – Flinders
While well documented in the Northern Hemisphere and Antarctica, much less is known about killer whales (Orcinus orca) in Australia. However, orcas are actually sighted year-round in all coastal states and territories and a new Flinders University study has now mapped this across three key regions.
Research led by Flinders University’s Cetacean Ecology, Behaviour and Evolution Lab (CEBEL) models the distribution of killer whales in Australian waters, shedding light on habitat preferences and uncovering ecological distinctions between populations.
In collaboration with the Cetacean Research Centre of WA, Project ORCA and Killer Whales Australia, the paper published in Ecology and Evolution collates 1310 sightings of killer whales around the country from the past four decades. Species distribution modelling is used to pinpoint places of high habitat suitability in southeast, southwest, and northwest Australia – notably the Bonney Upwelling (South Australia / Victoria), Bremer Sub-basin (Western Australia), and Ningaloo Reef (WA).
“This work greatly increases our understanding of killer whales in Australian waters and identifies areas of biological importance for management and monitoring,” says Flinders University CEBEL PhD candidate Marissa Hutchings, lead author of the article.
“Not only now do we have a nationwide picture, but our findings also support the idea that at least two ecologically distinct forms of killer whales exist in Australia – a temperate and a tropical form.”
The research calls for stronger conservation measures to protect these unique populations – “particularly given their role as apex predators in the marine ecosystem and the fact that some of their most important habitats are currently only partially protected by legislation,” she says.
“More research will be vital in ensuring that this species can be adequately managed in a changing environment, but this will only be made possible by collaboration between researchers, citizen scientists, and marine users to improve the size and accessibility of datasets on both killer whales and their prey.”
Another author on the paper, Flinders University Associate Professor Guido Parra, says differences in range and drivers of occurrence are important to recognise because anthropogenic stressors such as commercial fishing, marine tourism, offshore drilling, and chemical pollutants are becoming increasingly prevalent in Australia.
Senior author Flinders Associate Professor Luciana Möller says the study complements ongoing research into the genetics, feeding ecology and diversification of Australia’s killer whale populations – as well as highlights the usefulness of citizen science data.
“We hope this study will help inform the conservation of this species, which is still considered data deficient and remains to be adequately protected under Australian Government legislation.”
The article, ‘Species distribution modeling of killer whales (Orcinus orca) in Australian waters’ (2025) by Marissa J Hutchings (Flinders University), Guido J Parra (Flinders) and John A Totterdell (Cetacean Research Centre of WA), Rebecca Wellard (Project ORCA & Curtin University), David M Donnelly (Killer Whales Australia), Jonathan Sandoval-Castillo (Flinders) and Luciana Möller (Flinders) has been published in Ecology and Evolution (Wiley) DOI: 10.1002/ece3.71359. First published: 3 July 2025
Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the Royal Society for South Australia (RSSA) Small Research Grants Scheme. Researchers thank research collaborators and citizen scientists for providing the supporting data.
Iran-Israel war casts long shadow over global markets as strategic uncertainty persists, says GlobalData
The Iran-Israel war casts a long shadow over global markets, with the ceasefire offering only a temporary pause in hostilities rather than a path to resolution.
Ramnivas Mundada, Director of Economic Research and Companies at GlobalData, comments: “While Israel framed its offensive as a pre-emptive strike against a perceived existential danger posed by Iran's nuclear ambitions, this justification is contested. The region now faces a period of strategic uncertainty, with multiple potential outcomes.
The war has severely impacted Iran's oil and gas sector, with airstrikes causing significant damage to critical facilities, including the South Pars gas field and various refineries. This destruction has disrupted production and exacerbated existing energy shortages, raising concerns about long-term economic stability.
Against this backdrop, GlobalData has lowered Iran's economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.1% in March to a mere 0.3% in June. Additionally, the inflation rate projection has been revised upward from 32.3% to 47.5%, highlighting the increasing instability in the region and its detrimental effects on Iran's economic outlook.
The war has also led to increased volatility in the Iranian stock market, with the TEDPIX index contracting by 2.1% year-to-date as of 2 July 2025. Investor uncertainty has been fueled by rising oil prices, which surged from $59.2 per barrel on 5 June to a high of $74.4 per barrel by 22 June.
The Iran-Israel war has significantly affected multiple sectors, particularly the ready-made garment (RMG) industry, which faces challenges from rising oil prices and loss of competitiveness. Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are bracing for increased costs due to oil price volatility impacting packaging and raw materials.
Moreover, the war has highlighted the interconnectedness of global supply chains, with key chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz at risk. Disruptions in shipping routes and increased military activity have led to extended transit times and rising fuel costs, affecting global trade and logistics. The broader implications of the war underscore the urgent need for stability in the region, as the ripple effects extend far beyond the immediate combatants.
Mundada concludes: “Israel's military actions, framed as a response to an imminent nuclear threat, appear to be more complex and reflect a desire to assert military dominance in the region. As both nations navigate this precarious situation, the potential for renewed war looms large, underscoring the need for vigilance and adaptability from stakeholders in the region and beyond. The economic repercussions for Iran, coupled with the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, suggest that the path to lasting peace will be fraught with challenges.”
Notes
Quotes provided by Ramnivas Mundada, Director of Economic Research and Companies at GlobalData
The information is based on GlobalData's Macroeconomic Database, “Country Analytics Overview – GlobalData”
About GlobalData
4,000 of the world's largest companies, including over 70% of FTSE 100 and 60% of Fortune 100 companies, make more timely and better business decisions thanks to GlobalData's unique data, expert analysis, and innovative solutions, all in one platform. GlobalData's mission is to help our clients decode the future to be more successful and innovative across a range of industries, including the healthcare, consumer, retail, financial, technology, and professional services sectors.
Universities – Scientists warn of urgent need to tackle changes impacting river deltas – UEA
New research identifies the key causes of changes affecting river deltas around the world and warns of an urgent need to tackle them through climate adaptation and policy.
Deltas are low-lying areas that form as rivers and empty their water and sediment into another body of water, such as an ocean, lake, or another river.
Some of the largest in the world, such as the Rhine, Mekong, Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, and Nile, are threatened by climate change, facing rising sea levels and increasing frequency of extreme events.
With approximately 500 million people today living within or adjacent to delta systems, this is a major issue.
To address this, a team of international scientists has developed a new framework that identifies the 10 main drivers of change in deltas globally. These are: climate change, sea level rise, deforestation, intense agriculture, urbanisation, impoundments, land subsidence, ground water extraction, flood defences, and resources mining.
Most local, human-induced causes show measurable impacts within years and the framework provides a clear basis for prioritising timely, locally grounded action with a deeper understanding of the systems that shape these complex and dynamic environments.
Publishing their findings today in Nature Climate Change, the team includes scientists from the Universities of East Anglia (UEA), Southampton and Oxford in the UK, and Deltares, TU Delft, Wageningen University and Utrecht University in The Netherlands.
“Deltas are the most complex coastal systems in the world and recognising these multiple drivers and how they operate in each delta is fundamental to finding solutions,” said co-author Prof Robert Nicholls, from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at UEA and the University of Southampton.
Effective adaptation requires more than isolated measures, that often overlook an important step in deeper assessments of the system as a whole.
The diagnostic framework links these drivers of change with their direct and indirect impacts across scales in time and space (divided in centuries, decades or temporal scales). It is intended to support policymakers, technocrats, engineers, and stakeholders in developing locally grounded adaptation strategies that are both realistic and resilient.
It aims to help identify and understand the interconnectivities within the biophysical system, from source to sink, and how these link with local/regional/transboundary socio-economic structures.
While climate change threatens the world’s deltas, anthropogenic drivers – largely reflected in sediment starvation and resource extraction, profound land-use change and hydrological regime shifts – can outpace climate change in the short to medium term.
Nearly all local anthropogenic drivers result in measurable impacts within years or decades, emphasising the significance and relevance of local and regional causes for effective and timely climate adaptation and policy development.
“If we want to give deltas a real chance at long-term climate resilience, we need collective comprehension of the human footprint and the underlying drivers of change,” said Dr Sepehr Eslami, lead author and coastal expert at Deltares.
“By promoting system-level thinking, this framework encourages more critical and collaborative approaches to adaptation. It helps identify the solutions with the highest chance of being implemented successfully, especially when embedded in a longer-term vision.”
The diagnostic framework can also foster constructive dialogue among stakeholders and ensure that adaptation efforts are both science-based and socially relevant.
“Decision making in delta systems is extremely difficult due to all the complex interactions between different processes,” added Dr Amelie Paszkowski from the University of Oxford.
“But this framework helps to disentangle these dynamics and diagnose the challenges in a delta, which is a fundamental first step in defining adaptation solutions that tackle the root causes of the impacts felt.”
The research was inspired by the work of the Rise and Fall Project, a collaboration between Deltares and the Utrecht University, and also involved researchers from the University of Cologne and University of Padova.
Over a period of nearly three years, the team combined decades of knowledge on vulnerabilities in deltas and adaptation efforts to develop a framework that can facilitate diagnosing the key processes and interactions shaping a delta system. The goal: to offer a holistic foundation for planning effective, context-sensitive adaptation strategies.
‘A systems perspective for climate adaptation in deltas’ is published in Nature Climate Change on July 7.
Notes
- The paper DOI is: 10.1038/s41558-025-02368-0.
- Once published online, the paper will be available at the following URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02368-0
- The University of East Anglia (UEA) is a UK Top 25 university (Complete University Guide and HESA Graduate Outcomes Survey). It also ranks in the UK Top 20 for research quality (Times Higher Education REF2021 Analysis) and the UK Top 10 for impact on Sustainable Development Goals. Known for its world-leading research and good student experience, its 360-acre campus has won seven Green Flag awards in a row for its high environmental standards. The University is a leading member of Norwich Research Park, one of Europe’s biggest concentrations of researchers in the fields of environment, health and plant science. www.uea.ac.uk
Australia – Albanese Government Must Act, CSIRO Research Fuels Calls for Deep Sea Mining Moratorium
Source: Deep Sea Mining Campaign
As the peak international body on deep sea mining begins a three-week meeting, CSIRO has released a series of reports commissioned by mining proponent The Metals Company (TMC) that underscore the severe environmental risks and scientific uncertainty surrounding the dangerous industry.
The findings confirm international consensus; the deep ocean is too poorly understood to proceed with deep sea mining safely or responsibly, prompting major environmental organisations to call on the Albanese Government to support a moratorium.
The timing of the CSIRO reports appears to align with what was, until recently, TMC’s plan to submit an application to the ISA on June 27 – plans the company has now abandoned in favour of a controversial U.S. based pathway via a dormant 1980s law and enabled by the Trump administration.
Pressure is mounting on the Albanese Government to adopt a precautionary stance supporting a moratorium at the ISA in line with many of its major partners, including the UK, Canada, France, Germany and New Zealand. Currently, 37 countries back a deep sea mining moratorium.
TMC continues to apply pressure on international regulators to accelerate approvals for this high-risk untested industry. With a state-funded agency producing research likely to be used to legitimise mining in international waters, ocean advocates are calling on the Albanese Government to direct CSIRO to take no further actions on behalf of TMC.
The CSIRO reports confirm the likely damage to the seafloor and to the marine environment that civil society, Indigenous Pacific communities, and independent scientists have warned about; deep sea mining is too destructive and there is too much uncertainty to proceed.
“These findings echo the concerns we’ve heard right across the Pacific region – that the deep ocean is a highly complex, precious environment, and that accelerating deep sea mining would be dangerous,” said Phil McCabe, Pacific Regional Coordinator at the Deep Sea Conservation Coalition.
There remains a severe lack of real-world data about deep sea ecosystems – particularly in relation to the long-term environmental impacts and the risk of toxic pollution entering the food chain. Scientists warn that many of these impacts are likely to be irreversible in human timeframes. The CSIRO reports acknowledge the potential for heavy metals to bioaccumulate in marine life, including tuna, swordfish, whales, and dolphins.
“We’ve seen this before; traffic light systems, digital twin technology, adaptive management systems – all designed to give the illusion of sustainable management,” said Dr. Helen Rosenbaum, Research Coordinator at the Deep Sea Mining Campaign. “When the science is this uncertain, the only responsible signal is red.”
TMC’s recent decision to abandon its application to the ISA and instead issue permits through a dormant U.S. law has been widely condemned by governments and legal experts as a direct challenge to international law and multilateralism. The move undermines the ISA’s authority just as states prepare to negotiate key regulations.
“Australia’s credibility is on the line,” said Duncan Currie, International Lawyer and advisor to the Deep Sea Conservation Coalition. “CSIRO’s involvement with The Metals Company (TMC) risks implicating Australia in their attempt to sidestep international governance. The Albanese Government must now draw a clear line; support a moratorium at the International Seabed Authority, and ensure CSIRO takes no further action on TMC’s behalf.”
“At the ISA, a moratorium or precautionary pause on deep sea mining is the only viable path to protecting the deep sea,” said Shiva Gounden, Head of Pacific at Greenpeace Australia Pacific. “Delegates at the ISA must listen to the science and the voices of Pacific nations and back a moratorium to stop deep sea mining before it starts.”
The Deep Sea Mining Campaign, Deep Sea Conservation Coalition, Greenpeace Australia Pacific, and Surfrider Australia call on the Albanese Government to announce its support for a Moratorium at the upcoming ISA meeting in Jamaica; and direct CSIRO to take no further actions on behalf of TMC.
Pacific-Solomon Islands – 62 companies sign PSA contracts with SIG/MRD to supply materials to constituencies
The Ministry of Rural Development (MRD) has completed the qualification process and recently signed legally binding agreements with 62 private companies under the Solomon Islands Government Preferred Supplier Arrangement (PSA).
The PSA qualifies these Companies to supply materials, equipment, goods and services to the national government through the 50 constituencies.
This signing marks a significant milestone toward the full implementation of the 2025 Constituency Development Funds (CDF) budget; enabling the mobilization of essential resources for rural development projects and community improvements.
The PSA is a SIG procurement administrative process designed to streamline and fix procurement procedures particularly for commonly procured goods or equipment by engaging legally registered, genuine, and qualified companies to supply goods and services to the government. The goal is to improve efficiency and ensure the delivery of quality services to both the government and the public.
“The PSA contracts are valid for one year, with procurement of goods and services governed by and in compliance with Sections 73 and 74 of the Public Financial Management (PFM) Act 2013 and Section 28 of the Constituency Development Funds (CDF) Act 2023” MRD said in an official statement.
“The processes will be closely monitored by MRD in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance and Treasury (MoFT) to ensure all procurement procedures under the relevant sections of the PFM Act 2013, SIG Procurement Manual and the CDF Act 2023 are complied with, guaranteeing that quality goods and services are delivered to the constituencies,” the statement added.
It further explained that, to ensure impartiality, the PSA underwent a rigorous selection and evaluation process, including physical site inspections and assessments on suppliers conducted by the MRD Technical Evaluation Committee (TEC). The process also involved scrutiny by the Ministry of Finance (MoFT) and the Central Tender Board (CTB) before contracts were awarded to successful suppliers.
Regarding pricing, MRD secured fixed prices for various items based on prevailing market rates, ensuring value for money and consistent quality of materials purchased by constituencies for development projects.
Price evaluation was conducted exclusively for the 62 qualified companies across the following categories/items:
Hardware and Building Materials
Forestry Milling Products
Marine, Seagoing, and Fishing Equipment
Plant & Motor Vehicles
Electrification Supplies
Plumbing, Water Supply, and Sanitation Equipment
Communication, Musical, and Sound Equipment
Sports Equipment and Accessories
Agriculture and Gardening Equipment
Tailoring, Embroidery, and Fabric Printing Equipment
Cookery, Bakery, and Kitchenware
Retail Goods
The CTB serves as the awarding authority, responsible for the tender awards following the completion of all technical evaluation processes undertaken by MRD. PSA contracts are prepared by MRD, with signatories including Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Finance and Treasury (Chairman of the CTB), PS MRD (Chairman of the Ministerial Tender Board, MTB), and the suppliers.
The contracts are valid for one year (12 months), with fixed prices throughout the period. The list of the qualified suppliers for the PSA will be published when all contract documentations are finalised soon.
The Tender for the PSA was publicized in October 2024, with 68 companies submitting bids. After thorough evaluation, six companies were disqualified for failing to meet the minimum technical requirements outlined in the tender documentation, including Section VI, Schedule of Requirements. MRD also undertook a quick review of the selling prices of commonly procured goods under the PSA which resulted in some decrease in pricing on some commonly procured goods under the scheme.
Funding for the 2025 PSA is allocated from the MRD/SIG Development Budget.
The SIG support to the Constituency Development Program totals $250 million, which will be equally shared among the 50 constituencies—each receiving $5 million. Of this amount, $3.2 million is allocated and to be processed via the Preferred Suppliers Arrangement, while $1.8 million is provided as grants to the respective constituencies.
Funding utilization will follow the sectoral allocations stipulated in the CDF Act 2023, Section 26. Specifically, the funding utilisation will be portioned as follows:
40% for the Productive & Resources Sector
20% for Essential Services
20% for Cross-Sectoral, Inclusivity, and Gender initiatives
20% for Social and Cultural Obligations
The implementation of the 2025 CDF program continues to progress smoothly.
Australia – Green approach to increase wastewater recycling in regional towns – Flinders
Rising rural populations, drought and climate change are making water scarcity a problem in country townships – with more efficient handling of sewage system wastewater part of the solution.
Pioneered by Flinders University environmental health experts, local councils in South Australia are operating sustainable energy-efficient sewage treatment operations with low-cost high-rate algal pond (HRAP) systems.
Now new research led by Flinders University is investigating improved effluent treatment and biosolids removal with ‘sequencing batch reactors’ – or low-cost ‘SBR-HRAP’ technology field trials – installed at SA Water’s Angaston wastewater treatment plant in the Barossa Valley.
The good news is that the newer systems under development can work better and faster without major capital expense – due to the latest research of new approaches to bio-processing inside them, says Professor Howard Fallowfield, from the College of Science and Engineering at Finders University.
The SBR techniques under development involve a new kind of algae and improved removal of waste from the water, for better quality non-potable water for use in parks, gardens, sporting fields and other purposes.
“Supported by SA Water and the ARC Biofilm Research and Innovation Centre at Flinders, we are trialling selective enrichment of algal-bacterial combinations to produce higher quality treated effluent,” says Professor Fallowfield.
“Using wastewater from the Angaston community, our six pilot-scale HRAP tanks will compare the performance of these improved processes against the original HRAP operations.”
Large high-rate algal pond systems, which have been treating wastewater at local council-owned facilities near Kingston-on-Murray (since 2013) and Peterborough (since 2018) in South Australia, use low-energy paddlewheels to move township and business organic waste along shallow channels where harmless green microalgae and bacteria remove pathogens and contaminants.
PhD candidate Felipe Sabatté, who has used a native freshwater filamentous algal population to produce higher quality clarified treated effluent, says the latest developments will be scaled up in the Angaston field trials.
“While high-rate algal ponds are an accepted method of wastewater treatment, particularly for regional and rural communities, they utilise microalgae which are difficult to remove from the treated wastewater leading to unacceptably high suspended solids in the discharge,” says Mr Sabatté.
“These larger filamentous algae offer the prospect of easier separation from the treated wastewater, significantly improving treated effluent quality.”
The outcome of this research provides a new operational strategy for wastewater HRAPs, particularly for the benefit of regional and rural communities challenged with water restrictions and to help meet UN SDG6 (clean water and sanitation) targets in the long run, he says.
See more, ‘High-rate algal ponds operated as sequencing batch reactors: Towards wastewater treatment with filamentous algae’ (2025) by Felipe Sabatté, Ryan Baring and Howard Fallowfield, just published in the Journal of Applied Phycology – DOI: 10.1007/s10811-025-03545-6
First published 13 June 2025 – https://doi.org/10.1007/s10811-025-03545-6
This research was conducted by the Australian Research Council Industrial Transformation Training Centre for Biofilm Research and Innovation and funded by the Australian Government.
Also at the Angaston trial site, Flinders ARC Biofilm Research and Innovation Centre PhD researcher Sam Butterworth is investigating how to use this new technology to develop dense, algae-bacterial granules, which can be more readily removed from wastewater and to potentially reduce phosphorus levels.
“Algae-bacterial granule formation is a positive way for biofilms to form dense, fast-settling biomass and improve treated wastewater quality,” says Mr Butterworth.
“Using microalgae in high-rate algal ponds is increasingly seen as a better alternative to other wastewater treatment systems, such as activated sludge,” he says.
Traditional wastewater treatment methods can use more energy and water and can be less sustainable due to higher greenhouse gas emissions.
An independent validation of the HRAP projects approved the treated wastewater to be used for non-food crop irrigation. For example, the Kingston-on-Murray ponds supply reuse water to irrigate a woodlot, and the ponds in Peterborough provide reuse water for a golf course and a sports field.
Working with industry, the Flinders University ARC Training Centre for Biofilm Research and Innovation is working on a range of sustainable and environmentally friendly research solutions. See more at the website and https://youtu.be/FbWhd-lc9z0?si=pCnUqEaDDlymcDRF
Acknowledgements: This research was conducted by the Australian Research Council Industrial Transformation Training Centre for Biofilm Research and Innovation (project number IC2201000003).
Australia – CommBank unveils new brand platform Doubt Never Did, designed to inspire Australians – CBA
Cinematic hero film leads a bold new brand campaign across TV, social, OOH and digital.
CommBank has launched Doubt Never Did, a bold new campaign designed to empower Australians to overcome self-doubt and take action towards their personal and business goals.
The next evolution of CommBank’s enduring brand platform, Can.
Informed by deep cultural insights and macro tr
Hong Kong: Same-sex partnerships proposal does not go nearly far enough – Amnesty International
Responding to the Hong Kong government proposing a registration system that would recognize same-sex partnerships formed overseas and grant such couples more rights, Amnesty International’s China Director Sarah Brooks said:
“The Hong Kong government’s proposal does not go nearly far enough in its claim to recognize the rights of same-sex couples in the city.
“For unmarried same-sex couples in Hong Kong, where it is not legal for them to marry, this proposal provides precisely nothing. They are still denied both recognition of their union and the full array of rights enjoyed by opposite-sex couples.
“While this proposal affords limited additional rights to couples who have married or registered as civil partners overseas, this falls far short of the CFA's instruction to establish a framework of recognition in Hong Kong.”
Australia – Tariffs, geopolitical tensions and a turning tide on inflation: here’s what CommBank’s economists are looking out for in FY26 – CBA
While global risks remain elevated, Australia’s economy is showing signs of resilience.
“If anyone was still in any doubt that we had entered a new global economic era, the last few months have put those doubts to rest,” according to CBA’s Chief Economist Luke Yeaman and his team, today publishing ‘The CommBank View’, an in-depth analysis of economic issues in the year ahead.
The report presents a cautiously optimistic outlook for FY26. Despite persistent global headwinds—including trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty—the domestic economy is expected to remain resilient, buoyed by falling interest rates, stabilising inflation, and a rebound in household spending.
Global Landscape: A New Economic Era
CBA economists describe the current global environment as a departure from the stability of the “Great Moderation,” likening it instead to the economic volatility seen in the 1970s. The report notes:
“Conflict, volatility, and economic nationalism will remain defining features of the global economy in FY26.”
US trade policy is a major source of uncertainty. Tariff rates have tripled since 2024, and further hikes could again disrupt markets. Despite these tensions, the report highlights a willingness among global powers to avoid a full-scale breakdown of economic ties between major economies:
“The US and China chose to step back from the brink and avoid full economic decoupling — for now the costs are simply too high.”
Domestic Outlook: On the Path to a Cautious Recovery
Australia’s economic growth is expected to step up from 1.3% to 2.3% by June 2026, with inflation settling in the RBA’s target band. In light of this, CBA economists expect the RBA to deliver 25 basis point rate cuts in both July and August, bringing the cash rate to 3.35% and then hold at those neutral levels.
However, consumer behaviour remains a wildcard. While discretionary spending is beginning to recover, the report warns:
“Consumers may be experiencing some scarring from the sustained cost-of-living crunch. This could see the recovery in household consumption disappoint in FY26.”