Author: MIL-OSI Publisher

Source: GlobalData

LONDON, 14 October 2025 – Declining survey response rates, chronic underfunding, growing politicization of government agencies, and delayed reporting due to the government shutdown have all combined to undermine market confidence in official government data at precisely the time accurate labor market insights are most critical for assessing the true state of the economy in an increasingly complex world.

GlobalData Plc, the trusted intelligence partner to the world's leading organizations, offers a clear alternative. Powered by real-time, proprietary job postings data indexed daily directly from company and employer websites globally and leveraging a purpose-built AI model, GlobalData helps tracks underlying labor market trends ahead of the official release of U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data.

Toby Dayton, Managing Director at GlobalData, comments: “Using LinkUp's unique, high-quality, real-time job postings data and advanced modelling, we are able to deliver accurate signals around labor market strength or weakness and provide investors with data and insights to fundamentally understand one of the most critical drivers of the economy ahead of the official release.”

Over the past two years, forecasts powered by GlobalData's LinkUp data have beaten consensus 65% of the time while achieving 30% lower forecast errors. Crucially, trading signals derived from these forecasts have generated a cumulative 3% to 5% positive one-day return in equities and FX markets on NFP release days, evidence of the dataset's economic value for investors.

Superior data and forecasting

LinkUp's dataset, sourced directly from employer websites, eliminates sponsored job ads, duplicates, and expired postings and other job board pollution that plagues data sourced from third-party providers. Covering over 10 million daily active jobs across 195 countries and backed by a historical point-in-time archive dating to 2007, LinkUp data provides unparalleled breadth and depth to model robust forecasts. Proprietary indicators such as active jobs, posted jobs, and closed jobs correlate well with both NFP and JOLTS dataset, both at aggregate level and at sector-level, making them a ideal input into forecasting NFP and JOLTS.

Advanced modelling

GlobalData's forecasts are powered by a multi-stage modelling approach:

We initially train a constrained XG-Boost model for 10-year period, between 2013 to 2023, excluding 2-year COVID-19 period to remove pandemic driven abnormalities.
Key model input variables are LinkUp's closed jobs and posted jobs, initial claims and policy uncertainty (to incorporate tariff induced labor demand recalibration)
We then incorporate the above forecast in a secondary linear regression model along with ICE immigration data, trained from 2019, excluding covid period.
The second model forecast begin in Jan-2024 and the model is retrained each month to include latest date to build forecast for each subsequent months.

Investor advantage

For capital market participants, the benefits are clear:

Get an early lead into labor market trends and position accordingly. Our backtest shows that going long when GlobalData NFP forecasts are 5% above consensus and short if they are below 5%, across 6 FX pairs, generates 5% aggregate 1-day return across 18 data releases. In equity, across marketcaps, the aggregate 1-day return is 3%.

Dayton concludes: “Labor markets often move in cycles and tend to follow discernible patterns. By monitoring actual job postings in real time as opposed to job ads sourced from third parties, GlobalData can detect these turning points well before traditional data signal them.

“Investors who leverage GlobalData's AI-powered insights gain clarity on sectoral labor dynamics, early visibility into payroll strength or weakness, and the confidence to act ahead of consensus. In an environment where timing is everything, this foresight can transform uncertainty into opportunity.”

Notes

Quotes are provided by Toby Dayton, Managing Director at GlobalData
This press release was written using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research, and in-house analysis conducted by GlobalData's team of industry experts

About GlobalData

GlobalData Plc (AIM:DATA) operates an intelligence platform that empowers leaders to act decisively in a world of complexity and change. By uniting proprietary data, human expertise, and purpose-built AI into a single, connected platform, we help organisations see what is coming, move faster, and lead with confidence. Our solutions are used by over 5,000 organizations across the world's largest industries, providing tailored intelligence that supports strategic planning, innovation, risk management, and sustainable growth.

Source: Government of Nauru

Global events are sparking strong interest in citizenship by investment (CIB) schemes, according to the director of one of the most recently introduced programs.

CEO of the Nauru Economic and Climate Resilience Citizenship Program Edward Clark said European and Middle Eastern conflicts and political turmoil in the US were some of the factors behind the spike.

“Many people are currently feeling insecure about their place in the world, and are looking for alternative citizenship options,” Mr Clark said.

He said a US citizen recently applied to the Nauru program, while a European family recently granted Nauruan citizenship was looking for a second passport due to tensions in Europe, and was drawn to the Nauru program by a desire to support climate resilience initiatives.

Nauru’s Economic and Climate Resilience Citizenship Program commenced earlier this year and offers visa-free travel to 89 countries, while allowing the investor to contribute to climate resilience and sustainable development in Nauru, named by the UN as the world’s fifth most vulnerable country to economic and climate shock.

CIB programs like that offered by Nauru are being seen as a vital backup even for holders of strong passports, according to Mr Clark.

“Global volatility, policy shifts, and emergency scenarios make diversification through an additional passport a prudent move, so even citizens of European nations or the US are realising the importance of have a second citizenship as a safeguard.

“As well, in the event of major geopolitical conflict such as a European escalation of the Ukraine-Russia war, a second citizenship may provide a fallback citizenship to avoid mandatory military service or conscription scenarios.”

He said citizens of countries with politically sensitive or restricted passports are looking for a more neutral passport alternative that allows for less scrutiny when traveling to jurisdictions where their primary passport may raise flags.

However Mr Clark pointed out that entry isn’t guaranteed.

“Strict due diligence requirements including financial, police, and third-party checks underpin the integrity of the Nauru program and these are a strong value proposition for many people,” he said.

“Amid all the global uncertainty, people want to be assured they are investing in a robust program with strong safeguards for them and their family.

“We’re anticipating there will be strong ongoing interest in Nauru’s program, particularly from those who want to support a small island nation to implement measures to combat economic vulnerability and climate change,” he said.

About the Nauru Economic & Climate Resilience Citizenship Program

The Nauru Economic and Climate Resilience Citizenship Program is designed to attract investors who are committed to contributing to the sustainable development of the Pacific island nation of Nauru. By participating in this program, applicants can secure a second citizenship while supporting the island's efforts to combat climate change and enhance economic resilience.

www.ecrcp.gov.nr

Source: OPEC Fund for International Development (the OPEC Fund)

13 October 2025 – The President of the OPEC Fund for International Development (the OPEC Fund), Abdulhamid Alkhalifa, is leading the institution’s delegation to the 2025 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) in Washington, D.C., from October 13–18.

At a time of fragile global recovery and rising development needs, the OPEC Fund is stepping up its engagement to help partner countries accelerate growth, resilience and job creation.  Throughout the week, the OPEC Fund delegation will hold a series of high-level discussions with global leaders, government ministers, and partner development institutions to advance cooperation and scale up financing for sustainable development.
President Alkhalifa said: “The OPEC Fund remains focused on delivering solutions that make a difference on the ground. Following a record year in 2024, we are mobilizing additional resources, deepening partnerships and innovating to respond quickly and decisively to the challenges of growth, job creation, climate and inclusion.”
During the meetings, the OPEC Fund will sign new sovereign and non-sovereign loan agreements with partner countries and institutions, including: Jordan: A policy-based loan supporting growth and job creation. Lesotho: Financing for road and bridge upgrades to strengthen climate-resilience and connectivity Saint Lucia: Support for climate resilient infrastructure and transport. Paraguay: An OPEC Fund–led syndicated facility with private sector partners to boost SME financing.
The OPEC Fund will also conclude new partnership agreements with the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI), the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), and a Memorandum of Understanding with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to enhance cooperation on energy access, resilience and innovation.
President Alkhalifa’s agenda includes meetings with the World Bank leadership, and other multilateral partners such as the African Development Bank (AfDB), focusing on joint financing, co-investment in climate action and private sector mobilization.
Other highlights include:

A High-Level Roundtable on Strengthening Arab–LAC Partnerships, co-hosted with regional development banks.
The 50th Anniversary of the Arab Coordination Group (ACG) — a milestone celebrating five decades of South-South cooperation and shared impact across more than 160 countries. As a proud member of this strategic alliance, the OPEC Fund joined fellow ACG institutions in reaffirming their collective commitment to scale up development impact, leverage joint resources and expand collaboration across regions.
A roundtable on education with the ACG and the Global Partnership for Education. President Alkhalifa added: “Growth and jobs are at the heart of sustainable development. As we prepare to mark the OPEC Fund’s 50th anniversary next year, we are more determined than ever to deliver impact that exceeds our size – by working in partnership, leveraging resources and ensuring every dollar we deploy helps transform lives.”  

 President Alkhalifa added: “Growth and jobs are at the heart of sustainable development. As we prepare to mark the OPEC Fund’s 50th anniversary next year, we are more determined than ever to deliver impact that exceeds our size – by working in partnership, leveraging resources and ensuring every dollar we deploy helps transform lives.”  
The OPEC Fund for International Development (the OPEC Fund) is the only globally mandated development institution that provides financing from member countries to non-member countries exclusively. The organization was established in 1976 with a distinct purpose: to drive development, strengthen communities and empower people in low- and middle-income countries around the world. Our work is people-centered, focusing on financing projects that meet essential needs, such as food, energy, infrastructure, employment (particularly relating to MSMEs), clean water and sanitation, healthcare and education. To date, the OPEC Fund has committed more than US$30 billion to development projects in over 125 countries with an estimated total project cost of more than US$200 billion. The OPEC Fund is rated AA+/Outlook Stable by Fitch and S&P Global Ratings. Our vision is a world where sustainable development is a reality for all.

Source: deVere Group

October 13 2025 – The tariffs-driven sell-off and subsequent rebound in futures show that investors are trading on politics, not fundamentals — a mistake that will continue to create volatility, warns Nigel Green, CEO of global financial advisory giant deVere Group.

US stock futures rose on Sunday night after President Donald Trump hinted that he may soften his stance toward China, easing fears after his shock announcement on Friday of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports.

The move, a response to Beijing's tightening of rare earth export controls, sparked a steep sell-off that erased nearly $800 billion from major technology firms and sent the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to their worst day since April.

Beijing swiftly warned that it “does not want a tariff war but is not afraid of one.” But by Sunday evening, Trump had shifted tone, telling reporters aboard Air Force One, “Don't worry about China,” and praising President Xi Jinping as “a great leader.”

His remarks were enough to turn sentiment: Dow futures rose 0.8%, the S&P 500 gained 1.04%, and Nasdaq futures climbed 1.34% in early trading.

Nigel Green says this whiplash in market behaviour reveals a deeper problem. “Investors are reacting to tone rather than truth,” he says. “Markets are swinging on every change in Trump's language instead of the underlying economic reality. That's not investing — that's headline-chasing.”

He warns that such reactions can distort valuations and increase risk.

“When markets move solely on words rather than data, volatility becomes self-perpetuating. It fuels fear, then greed, and back again.

“The pattern we're seeing — panic on Friday, relief on Sunday — is entirely sentiment-driven.”

Nigel Green believes both sides are likely to pull back from the brink.

“China's control of rare earth minerals gives it leverage, but the US relies on its technology dominance. A complete rupture is too costly for either side,” he says.

“The most likely scenario is a pause in escalation and renewed talks, possibly extending the tariff truce reached in May.”

Still, he cautions that investors should not mistake calm for stability. “The threat of tariffs will linger as a policy weapon,” he notes.

“Under Trump, trade pressure has become a permanent feature of global markets. Even when tensions cool, the risk of a sudden reversal remains. That uncertainty keeps investors on edge and liquidity tighter than it should be.”

Economists estimate that if the latest tariffs are fully enforced, they could shave around half a percentage point off US GDP next year and slow China's already fragile export sector.

But Nigel Green argues that the real damage comes from hesitation. “Uncertainty paralyses decision-making. Companies delay investment, trade slows, and productivity falls. It's not the tariffs themselves doing the harm, it's the unpredictability.”

He adds that investors who chase every policy shift risk missing long-term opportunities.

“Volatility isn't the enemy of performance, emotion is. The smartest investors stay globally diversified, hold quality assets, and avoid reacting to every market tremor caused by a political statement. Fundamentals always reassert themselves.”

He concludes: “Markets seem addicted to the political drama, but the smart money is looking past it. Tariffs come and go; tone shifts daily. Fundamentals endure and those who remember that, and seek advice, will outperform in the months ahead.”

deVere Group is one of the world's largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices around the world, more than 80,000 clients, and $14bn under advisement.

Source: World Health Organization (WHO)

Source: Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU Singapore)
 
The dairy industry has been plagued by a persistent global problem for decades – bacterial infection of cow udders that significantly reduces milk production.
 
The condition, known as bovine mastitis, is estimated to cause annual global losses of US$22 billion (S$28 billion). While antibiotics have been used to treat the infection in dairy cattle, there are issues such as rising antibiotic resistance and concerns around milk contamination from antibiotic residues.
 
Now, a team of international researchers has developed alternatives to antibiotics that prevent infection through a novel mechanism they discovered.
 
The scientists were led by Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU Singapore), in collaboration with the Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) Interdisciplinary Research Group at the Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology (SMART), Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s (MIT) research enterprise in Singapore. Their findings were recently published in the scientific journal Nature Communications.
 
In a preliminary farm trial, the new antimicrobial compounds were applied on cow teats and shown to stave off udder infection after the animals were exposed to bacteria.
 
“Our study has unveiled an alternative class of potent antimicrobial compounds that could be used in the agriculture industry to combat multi-drug-resistant bacteria that cause bovine mastitis,” saidProfessor Mary Chan, one of the co-leads of the research from NTU Singapore’s School of Chemistry, Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology, and the Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, as well as a Principal Investigator at SMART AMR. “The compounds are also promising as they did not cause significant adverse effects in cattle in our tests. They didn’t spoil the cows’ milk nor make it unsafe for consumption as well.”
 
The new compounds have since attracted interest from several agricultural companies in Australia, Belgium, Malaysia and New Zealand. The businesses are keen as they are seeking substitutes that are safer and more environmentally friendly than existing compounds in preventing the infection of cow teats.
 
Professor Paula Hammond, Institute Professor and Executive Vice Provost at MIT and Principal Investigator at SMART AMR, who is one of the co-authors of the research, said: “With the success of our initial study in both the laboratory and in the field, we are now planning to work closely with industry partners to scale up and do larger trials in dairy cattle, with the aim of commercialising the novel antimicrobial compounds.”
 
Professor Kevin Pethe, the study’s other co-lead from NTU’s Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine and Principal Investigator at SMART AMR, noted that the new compounds are also very effective in killing multi-drug-resistant bacteria in mice at doses that were not noticeably harmful to the rodents in the team’s study. “This opens the way for the compounds to be further developed and optimised for other therapeutic applications in the biomedical field in the future,” he said.
   
Udder concerns
When cattle udders get infected, the antibiotics used to treat them often end up in their milk in high concentrations for some time, so the milk cannot be consumed or sold under existing rules. Bacteria resistant to such antibiotic treatments have surfaced too.
 
To prevent the infection of cow teats, farmers typically dip udders in antiseptic solution, such as those containing iodine or chlorhexidine, to kill bacteria on them. However, the disinfectants’ long-term use can irritate udders or cause their skin to crack, which increases the risk of infection.
 
There are also concerns that after cleaning the udders of the antiseptics, iodine and chlorhexidine may find their way into the environment and cause problems like disrupting the nutrient balance in nature and harming aquatic life respectively. And when the chemicals come into contact with milk, like when udders are not properly cleaned, they become less effective at killing bacteria.
 
The NTU-led scientists realised that these challenges in the dairy business could be addressed with novel compounds called “oligoimidazolium carbon acids” (OIMs) that they initially developed as alternatives to fight antibiotic-resistant bacteria.
 
They found that OIMs kill bacteria in a new way, unlike traditional “cationic” antimicrobials studied now as antibiotic substitutes. Parts of the OIMs convert into structures called carbenes, which lets them slip past the bacteria’s protective membranes quickly to damage their DNA and kill them. This killing method is more potent than for typical cationic antimicrobials. So, lower doses of OIMs are needed, which reduces the chance of side effects.
 
Commercial potential
The research team tested if OIMs could be used as an antiseptic dip to prevent bovine mastitis in a preliminary farm trial led by SMART AMR. Cows whose teats were dipped in the compounds did not develop udder infection over time after being exposed to bacteria.
 
The OIMs also did not irritate the cows’ udders nor cause the animals to behave abnormally – for example, they were not restless and did not kick, which are signs of itching and irritation. The compounds were easily washed off as no traces of them were detected on the udders or in the cows’ milk after the teats were cleaned.
 
They have a sustainable advantage as well. “The OIMs are biodegradable and break down into natural molecules that are neither toxic nor polluting, so we expect them to be more environmentally friendly than using iodine or chlorhexidine,” explained Dr Kaixi Zhang, Research Scientist at SMART AMR and a co-author of the study.
 
Tests showed that the OIMs do not affect the quality of the milk too. Furthermore, unlike iodine and chlorhexidine, the OIM’s ability to kill bacteria was unaffected by milk.
 
Going forward, the scientists are commercialising the OIMs through a spin-off company, and a large farm trial has been started in Malacca, Malaysia, to optimise the antimicrobial compounds. Several agricultural companies in Australia, Belgium, Malaysia and New Zealand have expressed interest in exploring the commercial use of the antimicrobial compounds in preventing, and possibly treating, bovine mastitis in dairy cattle.
 
The dairy industry has been actively searching for new compounds that are much less toxic, more effective and more sustainable to replace existing iodine- and chlorhexidine-based products, which have been used to prevent bovine mastitis for decades. Coupled with increased scrutiny of the dairy business following rising incidents of adulterated milk, companies have thus shown interest in the researchers’ new antimicrobial compounds.
 
The research conducted at SMART is supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore under its Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise (CREATE) programme. The farm trial study was supported by a grant from the SMART Innovation Centre, which helps researchers commercialise their technologies and turn them into successful ventures.

Source: Edith Cowan University (ECU)

Governments which employ private military companies such as Wagner and Africa Corps, can be held liable for any human rights violations committed by these firms, research from Edith Cowan University (ECU) has highlighted.

(ref. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-african-law/article/state-responsibility-for-violations-of-international-humanitarian-law-and-human-rights-law-by-private-security-companies-in-africa-the-case-of-the-wagner-group-and-africa-corps/C621A38DFB47268AA92E78E8206602B1 )

Associate Professor Shannon Bosch said the International Law Commission’s Articles of Responsibility of States for Internationally Wrongful Acts (ARISWA) provides a means for the international community to hold states responsible for the actions of private military, on behalf of the victims of abuse.

“Corporations like Wagner and Africa Corps, which both have solid ties to Russia, have been involved in Africa for quite some time. In exchange for mineral rights, they have partnered with elected leaders, African dictators, rebel groups and military generals and offer services ranging from private protection details to full military services,” Associate Professor Bosch said.

However, research noted that the name Wagner has become synonymous with grave human rights violations and abuses in Africa, with the companies facing allegations of sexual assault, mass executions, torture, the planting of explosives in civilian areas, and the forced displacement of civilians.

Associate Professor Bosch said that while it was tempting to classify Wagner employees as mercenaries, that legal status would depend on the company’s relationship with the host State. Where Wagner employees have been incorporated into the State’s armed forces, or even contracted, that contractual link exempts them from mercenary status.

It was also this association which made host States liable for any actions taken by these employees.

“States have the responsibility to ensure that any private military company that acts on their behalf should be well supervised and should be held accountable when instances of human rights violations are reported,” Associate Professor Bosch said.

“Immunity clauses and informal arrangements cannot shield States from responsibility when violations involve non-derogable rights.”

If the host nation is unwilling to step in and address these human rights violations, or worse condones them, it is up to third party states to act, Associate Professor Bosch said.

“ARISWA allows any State can invoke the responsibility of delinquent States when the breached obligation is owed to the international community as a whole. Third party States can bring actions before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to ensure accountability for violations of jus cogens norms, which are peremptory principles of international law that are universally recognised and from which no derogation is permitted.” she said.

In addition to moral and ethical obligations, third party States could also be prompted into taking this action to stave off the flow-on effects from human rights violations, particularly in States directly surrounding the host nation.

“Human rights violations cause repercussions that flow throughout the continent, including massive regional refugee populations and political instability. Rebel forces in neighbouring states are quick to incorporate the lessons learned from the private military firms and use those to stage a coup,” Associate Professor Bosch said.

Through ARSIWA, international law allows the global community to hold States accountable when they employ, support or control private military groups like Wagner or Africa Corps, whether these groups are officially part of the State's military, act like regular armed forces, follow State orders, or have their actions officially accepted by the State.

Where delinquent States rely on foreign aid and trade, sanctions could be an effective response to deter the use Wagner or Africa Corps forces.

However, Associate Professor Bosch noted that actions like ICJ rulings, diplomatic pressure, or sanctions all depend on proving a clear link between these forces and the States that hire, support, or allow them to operate.

Source: Swinburne University of Technology

Australia is projected to experience 18 days of extreme heatwaves annually, up from just 4 days currently, and a 444 per cent increase in heatwave-related deaths in Sydney alone, according to a new report: (ref. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/australia-warns-cascading-climate-risks-ahead-emissions-target-announcement-2025-09-15 )

Source: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CommBank)

The latest CommBank View examines the shifting forces and underlying tensions shaping Australia’s economy, global markets, and the outlook for 2026.

13 October 2025 – The Australian economy is at a crossroads heading towards 2026. There are a range of potential domestic and international scenarios that could rapidly shift the outlook. But CBA economists are still predicting a final RBA interest rate cut early in the year.

“The Australian economy is at an important juncture,” CBA Chief Economist Luke Yeaman said.

With private activity rebounding, consumer confidence climbing, and house prices on the move, the Australian outlook has strengthened. Yet, the path ahead is finely balanced, as inflation has re-emerged as a risk, jobs growth has slowed, and wage gains have eased, while global risks remain high.

Australia’s economy is likely to steer a middle path through these cross-currents, according to the latest CommBank View report; an in-depth look at the forces shaping global and domestic economies, markets, currencies, and commodities as we head into 2026.

The Domestic View: Emerging tensions in the outlook

After years of subdued growth, Australia’s economy is rebounding, with consumer spending and house prices rising. GDP growth has reached 1.8 per cent and is forecast to hit 2.2 per cent by end-2026. However, employment growth is slowing, and inflation remains sticky, prompting the RBA to hold rates steady.

While spending is broadening, many households remain cautious and are still boosting savings. Business investment is yet to lift meaningfully, and the labour market is softening.

“There are emerging tensions in recent economic data, complicating the outlook.  Improvements in economic activity have been accompanied by weaker employment growth, and upside surprises to monthly inflation data. This tension has created a challenge for the central bank in determining the extent and timing of further easing in monetary policy,” said Head of Australian Economics, Belinda Allen.

The Global View: Improved prospects but risks remain

Global economic prospects have generally improved, as interest rate and US tax cuts take effect, however the latest US-China frictions show there is no room for complacency. A comprehensive US-China deal still remains elusive despite most US trading partners now having settled reciprocal rates. The US economy is absorbing tariffs with little impact on consumer inflation to date, but employment in import-heavy sectors has weakened.

China’s growth has slowed, prompting further fiscal support, while Europe faces modest expansion amid new tariffs and a slow ramp up in promised defence and infrastructure investment.

Key risks remain, including renewed US-China tensions, as highlighted by the latest Chinese announcement over rare earth restrictions and US threats of 100 per cent tariffs. Fiscal discipline will be crucial for global stability as markets remain sensitive to government debt and policy changes.

The report also warns of ongoing risks, including the threat to US Federal Reserve independence. “A loss of Fed credibility would undermine markets and drive-up long-term inflation expectations,” said Joseph Capurso, Head of FX, International & Geoeconomics.

Other key takeaways:

Commodities

• Gold has surged as the preferred safe-haven asset in 2025, outperforming the US dollar and Treasuries amid global uncertainty and strong central bank demand. 
• This marks a shift from previous crises, with gold now favoured by investors and central banks alike. 
• Meanwhile, iron ore prices remain resilient above $US100/t but are expected to ease as weak Chinese steel demand weighs on margins. 
• The outlook for both commodities will depend on global policy moves and China’s production decisions.

Sustainability

• The Australian government has set an ambitious target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 62–70 per cent by 2035, with the electricity sector expected to lead the way. 
• Achieving this will require a major ramp-up in renewables, reduced coal and gas output, and a rapid shift to electric vehicles and cleaner industry. 
• While the goals are bold, significant policy support and further incentives will be needed to meet these challenges across all key sectors.

Currencies

• The US dollar has stabilised after a sharp fall earlier this year but is expected to weaken further in the near term as investor risk appetite remains high and US growth slows. 
• The Australian dollar is forecast to rise as the USD falls, but this trend may reverse in 2026 as the US economy recovers. 
• Ongoing global uncertainty and falling commodity prices could weigh on the AUD, while risks remain from both US and Chinese economic developments.

Bonds

• Global bond markets have stabilised after earlier volatility, with US yields trending lower as growth slows and the Federal Reserve resumes rate cuts. 
• Australian bond yields have remained more stable, but interest rate differentials with the US have widened.
• Looking ahead, concerns over global inflation and high government debt may limit further declines in yields, keeping markets sensitive to policy changes and fiscal pressures.

Source: Médecins Sans Frontières

11 October 2025: The announcement of the first phase of the ceasefire in Gaza brings a welcome moment of relief for exhausted, starved, and grieving Palestinians and a great relief to the families of all hostages — but it comes after more than two years and over 67,000 lost lives.  

While we welcome the ceasefire, it does not mark the end of this horrendous suffering — people in Gaza are left to survive amid the ruins of what was once their home, facing immense medical, psychological, and material needs.

“The feeling of our colleagues and the people around us is one of hope, a lot of hope, wishing that this nightmare will finally stop and they will be able to be at peace, be able to recover from their trauma, both physical and mental. But there's also a lot of uncertainty of what is going to happen, what are the next steps,” says Jacob Granger, MSF emergency coordinator in Gaza.    

The ceasefire must be respected and sustained because it's the only way that will allow care to be provided at the scale people desperately need — something that was impossible under siege and bombardment. In the long term, we hope to see this ceasefire leading to efforts to rebuild the Strip, including restoring the shattered healthcare system.
 
The most basic necessities are still urgently needed in Gaza: medical equipment, medicines, food, water, fuel, and adequate shelter for two million people who will face the approaching winter without a roof over their heads.  

This ceasefire must be accompanied by an immediate massive and sustained scale-up of aid into and across the Strip, including the north. We urge the Israeli authorities to allow a sufficient and unimpeded flow of humanitarian assistance and to authorize medical evacuations for patients in need of urgent specialist care. At the same time, the UN-led humanitarian coordination mechanism must be reinstated to guarantee safe and impartial access to aid for those in need, wherever they are in the Gaza Strip.

MSF is an international, medical, humanitarian organisation that delivers medical care to people in need, regardless of their origin, religion, or political affiliation.  MSF Australia was established in 1995 and is one of 24 international MSF sections committed to delivering medical humanitarian assistance to people in crisis. Every year more than 120 Australians and New Zealanders go on assignment with Médecins Sans Frontières  working as: doctors, midwives, psychologists, laboratory technicians, human resource/finance coordinators, pharmacists, mental health specialists and logisticians. MSF delivers medical care based on need alone and operates independently of government, religion or economic influence and irrespective of race, religion or gender. For more information visit msf.org.au