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Australia is projected to experience 18 days of extreme heatwaves annually, up from just 4 days currently, and a 444 per cent increase in heatwave-related deaths in Sydney alone, according to a new report: (ref. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/australia-warns-cascading-climate-risks-ahead-emissions-target-announcement-2025-09-15 )

The latest CommBank View examines the shifting forces and underlying tensions shaping Australia’s economy, global markets, and the outlook for 2026.

13 October 2025 – The Australian economy is at a crossroads heading towards 2026. There are a range of potential domestic and international scenarios that could rapidly shift the outlook. But CBA economists are still predicting a final RBA interest rate cut early in the year.

“The Australian economy is at an important juncture,” CBA Chief Economist Luke Yeaman said.

With private activity rebounding, consumer confidence climbing, and house prices on the move, the Australian outlook has strengthened. Yet, the path ahead is finely balanced, as inflation has re-emerged as a risk, jobs growth has slowed, and wage gains have eased, while global risks remain high.

Australia’s economy is likely to steer a middle path through these cross-currents, according to the latest CommBank View report; an in-depth look at the forces shaping global and domestic economies, markets, currencies, and commodities as we head into 2026.

The Domestic View: Emerging tensions in the outlook

After years of subdued growth, Australia’s economy is rebounding, with consumer spending and house prices rising. GDP growth has reached 1.8 per cent and is forecast to hit 2.2 per cent by end-2026. However, employment growth is slowing, and inflation remains sticky, prompting the RBA to hold rates steady.

While spending is broadening, many households remain cautious and are still boosting savings. Business investment is yet to lift meaningfully, and the labour market is softening.

“There are emerging tensions in recent economic data, complicating the outlook.  Improvements in economic activity have been accompanied by weaker employment growth, and upside surprises to monthly inflation data. This tension has created a challenge for the central bank in determining the extent and timing of further easing in monetary policy,” said Head of Australian Economics, Belinda Allen.

The Global View: Improved prospects but risks remain

Global economic prospects have generally improved, as interest rate and US tax cuts take effect, however the latest US-China frictions show there is no room for complacency. A comprehensive US-China deal still remains elusive despite most US trading partners now having settled reciprocal rates. The US economy is absorbing tariffs with little impact on consumer inflation to date, but employment in import-heavy sectors has weakened.

China’s growth has slowed, prompting further fiscal support, while Europe faces modest expansion amid new tariffs and a slow ramp up in promised defence and infrastructure investment.

Key risks remain, including renewed US-China tensions, as highlighted by the latest Chinese announcement over rare earth restrictions and US threats of 100 per cent tariffs. Fiscal discipline will be crucial for global stability as markets remain sensitive to government debt and policy changes.

The report also warns of ongoing risks, including the threat to US Federal Reserve independence. “A loss of Fed credibility would undermine markets and drive-up long-term inflation expectations,” said Joseph Capurso, Head of FX, International & Geoeconomics.

Other key takeaways:

Commodities

• Gold has surged as the preferred safe-haven asset in 2025, outperforming the US dollar and Treasuries amid global uncertainty and strong central bank demand. 
• This marks a shift from previous crises, with gold now favoured by investors and central banks alike. 
• Meanwhile, iron ore prices remain resilient above $US100/t but are expected to ease as weak Chinese steel demand weighs on margins. 
• The outlook for both commodities will depend on global policy moves and China’s production decisions.

Sustainability

• The Australian government has set an ambitious target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 62–70 per cent by 2035, with the electricity sector expected to lead the way. 
• Achieving this will require a major ramp-up in renewables, reduced coal and gas output, and a rapid shift to electric vehicles and cleaner industry. 
• While the goals are bold, significant policy support and further incentives will be needed to meet these challenges across all key sectors.

Currencies

• The US dollar has stabilised after a sharp fall earlier this year but is expected to weaken further in the near term as investor risk appetite remains high and US growth slows. 
• The Australian dollar is forecast to rise as the USD falls, but this trend may reverse in 2026 as the US economy recovers. 
• Ongoing global uncertainty and falling commodity prices could weigh on the AUD, while risks remain from both US and Chinese economic developments.

Bonds

• Global bond markets have stabilised after earlier volatility, with US yields trending lower as growth slows and the Federal Reserve resumes rate cuts. 
• Australian bond yields have remained more stable, but interest rate differentials with the US have widened.
• Looking ahead, concerns over global inflation and high government debt may limit further declines in yields, keeping markets sensitive to policy changes and fiscal pressures.

11 October 2025: The announcement of the first phase of the ceasefire in Gaza brings a welcome moment of relief for exhausted, starved, and grieving Palestinians and a great relief to the families of all hostages — but it comes after more than two years and over 67,000 lost lives.  

While we welcome the ceasefire, it does not mark the end of this horrendous suffering — people in Gaza are left to survive amid the ruins of what was once their home, facing immense medical, psychological, and material needs.

“The feeling of our colleagues and the people around us is one of hope, a lot of hope, wishing that this nightmare will finally stop and they will be able to be at peace, be able to recover from their trauma, both physical and mental. But there's also a lot of uncertainty of what is going to happen, what are the next steps,” says Jacob Granger, MSF emergency coordinator in Gaza.    

The ceasefire must be respected and sustained because it's the only way that will allow care to be provided at the scale people desperately need — something that was impossible under siege and bombardment. In the long term, we hope to see this ceasefire leading to efforts to rebuild the Strip, including restoring the shattered healthcare system.
 
The most basic necessities are still urgently needed in Gaza: medical equipment, medicines, food, water, fuel, and adequate shelter for two million people who will face the approaching winter without a roof over their heads.  

This ceasefire must be accompanied by an immediate massive and sustained scale-up of aid into and across the Strip, including the north. We urge the Israeli authorities to allow a sufficient and unimpeded flow of humanitarian assistance and to authorize medical evacuations for patients in need of urgent specialist care. At the same time, the UN-led humanitarian coordination mechanism must be reinstated to guarantee safe and impartial access to aid for those in need, wherever they are in the Gaza Strip.

MSF is an international, medical, humanitarian organisation that delivers medical care to people in need, regardless of their origin, religion, or political affiliation.  MSF Australia was established in 1995 and is one of 24 international MSF sections committed to delivering medical humanitarian assistance to people in crisis. Every year more than 120 Australians and New Zealanders go on assignment with Médecins Sans Frontières  working as: doctors, midwives, psychologists, laboratory technicians, human resource/finance coordinators, pharmacists, mental health specialists and logisticians. MSF delivers medical care based on need alone and operates independently of government, religion or economic influence and irrespective of race, religion or gender. For more information visit msf.org.au  

The Coincident Barometer records a slight decrease, and the Leading Barometer remains stable in October. Both show a stabilization movement after four consecutive months of increases. Mainly the results of the Western Hemisphere are holding back the barometer.

In October, the Global Economic Coincident Barometer decreases by 0.7 points to 97.8 points, while the Leading Barometer remains stable at 102.7 points. Among the regions, the Western Hemisphere contributes negatively to both results, while the Asia, Pacific & Africa region moves in the opposite direction and Europe shows moderate contributions in both directions.

“Following four consecutive increases in both the coincident and leading global barometers, neither increased further. In both cases, survey information from the United States in particular restrained further improvement. While political turmoil largely affected industry, the slight decline in the coincident indicator was largely due to services. Given that the US government shutdown is too recent to be reflected in the underlying data, this probably highlights an overall weakening of the Western Hemisphere that cannot be fully compensated for by the rest of the world”, comments KOF Director Jan-Egbert Sturm the latest results.

Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors

The 0.7-point decrease in the Coincident Barometer in October results from negative contributions of 0.9 and 0.1 points from the Western Hemisphere and Europe regions, respectively, while the Asia, Pacific & Africa region contributes positively with 0.3 points. As a result, the Western Hemisphere indicator falls to its lowest level since July of this year, diverging from the levels of the other regions. These, in turn, stabilize near the neutral 100-point level.

Among the coincident sectoral indicators, only Trade rises in the month, maintaining the highest level among sectors, a position it has held since March of this year. Among the other sectors, Services records the largest decrease and the lowest level.

Leading Barometer – regions and sectors

The Global Leading Barometer remains stable in October, with the Asia, Pacific & Africa and Europe regions contributing positively with 0.6 and 0.1 points, respectively. The Western Hemisphere, on the other hand, contributes negatively with -0.7 points. The first two regional indicators remain above the 100-point level, while the Western Hemisphere falls to the upper range of the 90-point level. The Leading Global Barometer leads the world economic growth rate cycle by three to six months on average.

The leading sectoral indicators show mixed results in the month, with increases in Trade, Construction, and Industry, and decreases in Services and the Economy indicator (which is based on variables representing overall business and consumer evaluations).

Shooting at Mosque Highlights ongoing persecution and Neglected Protection

An armed attack occurred today (Friday 5 October) at Baitul Mahdi Mosque in Rabwah, Pakistan, injuring several Ahmadi Muslim volunteers.

According to initial reports, an armed assailant opened fire on members of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community who were volunteering outside the Mosque to ensure the safety of worshippers. Several Ahmadi Muslims were fired upon and injured. At least two Ahmadi Muslims sustained critical injuries, whilst others suffered less severe injuries.

The terrorist was shot dead by security personnel at the scene before he could enter the Mosque and target more innocent civilians.

During his weekly Friday Sermon, speaking from Farnham, Surrey, the worldwide head of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community, His Holiness, Hazrat Mirza Masroor Ahmad said:

“Today in Rabwah, at Baitul Mahdi located in Gol Bazaar, terrorists launched an attack in which five or six of our members were injured. Two of them are in a critical condition … May Allah the Almighty grant them a full and speedy recovery … One of the terrorists was killed by our security personnel, while another managed to flee.”

His Holiness called upon the Government of Punjab to uphold justice and fulfil its duty to protect all citizens, rather than making hollow claims that crime in the province has been entirely eradicated.

Hazrat Mirza Masroor Ahmad said:

“May Allah swiftly bring to justice those terrorists, lawbreakers, and opponents of the Community. The government of Punjab and its Chief Minister claim that crime in Punjab has been one hundred percent controlled and that no criminals remain. Yet, the repeated attacks upon Ahmadi Muslims – their being martyred, injured, or having their properties set ablaze – are seemingly not counted as crimes.”

This attack comes amid a long and painful history of systematic persecution faced by the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community in Pakistan. Ahmadi Muslims are legally prohibited from identifying as Muslims or practising their faith openly.

Last month, an Ahmadiyya mosque in Bahawalnagar was desecrated, while over 200 attackers set fire to properties in Piro Chak. Similar attacks also occurred this year in Daska, Faisalabad, and Karachi, targeting mosques and community members.

Source: deVere Group

October 9 2025 – Global stock markets – particularly those in the Middle East – are poised for a significant surge if the Trump-backed agreement proves to be a decisive step toward ending the two-year Gaza conflict, says Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group.

“Should the agreement hold and bring stability to the region, it could ignite a considerable rally,” he explains.

“We would see Middle Eastern equities, global energy stocks, and construction and infrastructure firms soar, while financials and logistics would also move sharply higher as investors price in peace, growth, and reconstruction.”

He adds: “The world has been conditioned to price in war risk for two years. If the Trump-brokered deal marks a credible path to lasting peace, that risk premium collapses. Capital will flood back into markets that have been sitting in a holding pattern. 

“Investors will chase early exposure to Gulf bourses, oil majors, and global firms linked to regional rebuilding.”

The Gulf's main indices have already signalled optimism. The Dubai Financial Market climbed around 1%, Abu Dhabi's exchange rose, and Saudi Arabia's Tadawul advanced more than 1.5% on Thursday. 

“These are early moves, but they show exactly how markets behave when geopolitical clouds start to clear,” Nigel Green explains. 

“We'd expect the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar to lead the charge, powered by their fiscal surpluses and sovereign wealth capital ready to be redeployed.”

Energy stocks would also benefit, though in a different way.

“A sustained ceasefire could narrow the geopolitical risk premium in oil, tempering prices initially. But lower volatility and predictable supply would boost the energy sector's appeal. Refiners, pipeline operators, and renewables developers tied to Gulf diversification plans could all see strong inflows,” he says.

It could be expected that the biggest upside will come in infrastructure, construction, and financial services. 

“If this agreement triggers real reconstruction efforts, there will be enormous demand for capital, materials, and project management. Cement producers, steel firms, engineering companies, and banks financing regional rebuilding will see a surge in activity. 

“It could become the single largest reconstruction investment drive since the early 2000s.”

The peace dividend, he argues, is likely to also cascade across other emerging markets. “Stability in the Middle East enhances confidence globally. 

“We'll see emerging-market bonds compress in yield as geopolitical tension fades. Asian and European markets tied to energy, construction, and shipping will also rally as risk appetite strengthens.”

The timing of the deal amplifies its potential impact. 

“Markets are already buoyed by expectations of further US rate cuts. Layer a peace framework on top of that and you have the perfect cocktail for a risk rally,” comments the deVere CEO.

“Cash-heavy institutional investors will rotate quickly out of safe assets into equities, sovereign bonds, and high-yield plays.”

He adds that investor psychology will shift dramatically. “For the first time in years, peace in the Middle East would be seen not as a hope but as an investable event. The narrative flips from conflict management to growth acceleration.”

“Energy infrastructure, transport, and logistics firms are likely to move first,” Nigel Green predicts. 

“Then banks, insurers, and capital markets across the GCC will attract inflows as they become the financing hubs of a reconstruction-led cycle. Industrials and materials will follow as tenders roll out. Even consumer stocks could benefit as confidence and regional tourism rebound.”

He warns, however, that durability matters. “Investors will reward verified progress — ceasefire enforcement, reconstruction financing, and diplomatic continuity. 

 “If those appear credible, the rally could extend for quarters, not days.”

Nigel Green concludes: “A successful, Trump-backed peace deal would not just lift regional sentiment, it could reshape global investment priorities. Markets are ready to move the moment peace looks real.”

deVere Group is one of the world's largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices around the world, more than 80,000 clients, and $14bn under advisement.

Geneva, 9 October 2025 – The latest Global Trade Update from UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released today shows that:

Global trade expanded by about $500 billion in the first half of 2025, despite volatility, policy shifts and persistent geopolitical tensions.

At Moldova Business Week 2025, a memorandum of understanding was signed between Zener Group (Republic of Moldova), New Energy Technology (China), and Horizon Auto, outlining the launch of a €20 million investment project. The project, to be implemented in Strășeni, will establish the first manufacturing facility in the Republic of Moldova dedicated to components for electric mobility infrastructure. The facility will produce equipment for charging stations and energy storage systems for electric vehicles, with a strategic export orientation towards the European market.

This investment represents a major Chinese project in the Republic of Moldova in recent years, exceeding by more than 20 times the level of investment capital previously attracted from this country. The Moldovan-Chinese strategic partnership not only highlights the growing interest of Asian investors in the local market, but also reflects the maturing investment climate in the Republic of Moldova, capable of attracting large-scale projects in high-tech areas, as well as the strategic location of the Republic of Moldova — nearshoring, which played an important role in the decision-making process regarding the geographical location of the investment.

Recent data confirms Moldova's focus on high-value technologies and its strengthening role in electric mobility supply chains. Imports from China include high-tech goods such as smartphones and photovoltaic cells, while Moldovan exports of EV components have grown by more than 50% in the last five years, with the Netherlands, Ukraine, and Romania as the main destinations. This development confirms Moldova's gradual integration into European value chains and opens up prospects for strengthening bilateral cooperation with China in high-tech and green transition areas.

In turn, the representative of the Chinese company, Mu Dayong, highlighted the strategic prospects of the project:

“We are investing €20 million to build a modern, fully automated factory for the European market. Our goal is to develop a solid production base here for energy charging and storage technologies, contributing both to the development of the region and to the integration of the Republic of Moldova into European value chains.”

The Strășeni factory will create dozens of direct jobs, given the high level of automation and semi-automation of the assembly line. The positions will be mainly in electrical and electronic engineering, logistics, and production management. At the same time, the investment will generate indirect benefits by developing local suppliers and increasing exports of technologies and components for electric vehicles.

The project contributes significantly to the development of the green technology sector in the Republic of Moldova and to increasing the country's economic capacity in the field of electric mobility. Through the involvement of Invest Moldova Agency, which facilitated dialogue with investors and supported the implementation of the project, the investment reflects the authorities' commitment to supporting strategic partnerships and creating favorable conditions for attracting foreign capital in high-tech sectors.

“This investment confirms that the Republic of Moldova is ready to actively participate in global value chains. It validates the direction we have chosen—the technological advancement of industry and the development of high value-added sectors. The project not only demonstrates investor confidence in our business environment, but also strengthens Moldova's position as a credible partner in the green transition and integration into the modern European economy”, said Natalia Bejan, Director of Invest Moldova Agency.

“This investment, carried out in partnership with New Energy Technology Co., marks a pivotal moment for Zener Group and for the economic development of the Republic of Moldova. Through the construction of the factory in Strășeni, we will produce advanced components for electric mobility infrastructure, creating dozens of skilled jobs and strengthening our country's position in European value chains. This project not only attracts significant foreign capital but also demonstrates Moldova's potential as a technological hub in the green transition.”

– Nicu Danilov, co-founder of Zener Group

08 OCTOBER 2025 – Equinor invites analysts with coverage of the company to provide estimates for the third quarter adjusted results.

Equinor publishes third quarter 2025 financial results on 29 October.

Every quarter ahead of the earnings announcement, Equinor collects earnings and production estimates from the equity analysts covering the company. These numbers become a proxy for what the market expects in terms of Equinor’s results and are published as “consensus” a week prior to the actual release.

The invitation to send estimates contains information on some relevant factors for Equinor’s quarterly results as well as other information. Some of these items are preliminary.

The invitation is published on the investor pages at Equinor.com.