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The Coincident Barometer records a slight decrease, and the Leading Barometer remains stable in October. Both show a stabilization movement after four consecutive months of increases. Mainly the results of the Western Hemisphere are holding back the barometer.

In October, the Global Economic Coincident Barometer decreases by 0.7 points to 97.8 points, while the Leading Barometer remains stable at 102.7 points. Among the regions, the Western Hemisphere contributes negatively to both results, while the Asia, Pacific & Africa region moves in the opposite direction and Europe shows moderate contributions in both directions.

“Following four consecutive increases in both the coincident and leading global barometers, neither increased further. In both cases, survey information from the United States in particular restrained further improvement. While political turmoil largely affected industry, the slight decline in the coincident indicator was largely due to services. Given that the US government shutdown is too recent to be reflected in the underlying data, this probably highlights an overall weakening of the Western Hemisphere that cannot be fully compensated for by the rest of the world”, comments KOF Director Jan-Egbert Sturm the latest results.

Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors

The 0.7-point decrease in the Coincident Barometer in October results from negative contributions of 0.9 and 0.1 points from the Western Hemisphere and Europe regions, respectively, while the Asia, Pacific & Africa region contributes positively with 0.3 points. As a result, the Western Hemisphere indicator falls to its lowest level since July of this year, diverging from the levels of the other regions. These, in turn, stabilize near the neutral 100-point level.

Among the coincident sectoral indicators, only Trade rises in the month, maintaining the highest level among sectors, a position it has held since March of this year. Among the other sectors, Services records the largest decrease and the lowest level.

Leading Barometer – regions and sectors

The Global Leading Barometer remains stable in October, with the Asia, Pacific & Africa and Europe regions contributing positively with 0.6 and 0.1 points, respectively. The Western Hemisphere, on the other hand, contributes negatively with -0.7 points. The first two regional indicators remain above the 100-point level, while the Western Hemisphere falls to the upper range of the 90-point level. The Leading Global Barometer leads the world economic growth rate cycle by three to six months on average.

The leading sectoral indicators show mixed results in the month, with increases in Trade, Construction, and Industry, and decreases in Services and the Economy indicator (which is based on variables representing overall business and consumer evaluations).

Shooting at Mosque Highlights ongoing persecution and Neglected Protection

An armed attack occurred today (Friday 5 October) at Baitul Mahdi Mosque in Rabwah, Pakistan, injuring several Ahmadi Muslim volunteers.

According to initial reports, an armed assailant opened fire on members of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community who were volunteering outside the Mosque to ensure the safety of worshippers. Several Ahmadi Muslims were fired upon and injured. At least two Ahmadi Muslims sustained critical injuries, whilst others suffered less severe injuries.

The terrorist was shot dead by security personnel at the scene before he could enter the Mosque and target more innocent civilians.

During his weekly Friday Sermon, speaking from Farnham, Surrey, the worldwide head of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community, His Holiness, Hazrat Mirza Masroor Ahmad said:

“Today in Rabwah, at Baitul Mahdi located in Gol Bazaar, terrorists launched an attack in which five or six of our members were injured. Two of them are in a critical condition … May Allah the Almighty grant them a full and speedy recovery … One of the terrorists was killed by our security personnel, while another managed to flee.”

His Holiness called upon the Government of Punjab to uphold justice and fulfil its duty to protect all citizens, rather than making hollow claims that crime in the province has been entirely eradicated.

Hazrat Mirza Masroor Ahmad said:

“May Allah swiftly bring to justice those terrorists, lawbreakers, and opponents of the Community. The government of Punjab and its Chief Minister claim that crime in Punjab has been one hundred percent controlled and that no criminals remain. Yet, the repeated attacks upon Ahmadi Muslims – their being martyred, injured, or having their properties set ablaze – are seemingly not counted as crimes.”

This attack comes amid a long and painful history of systematic persecution faced by the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community in Pakistan. Ahmadi Muslims are legally prohibited from identifying as Muslims or practising their faith openly.

Last month, an Ahmadiyya mosque in Bahawalnagar was desecrated, while over 200 attackers set fire to properties in Piro Chak. Similar attacks also occurred this year in Daska, Faisalabad, and Karachi, targeting mosques and community members.

Source: deVere Group

October 9 2025 – Global stock markets – particularly those in the Middle East – are poised for a significant surge if the Trump-backed agreement proves to be a decisive step toward ending the two-year Gaza conflict, says Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group.

“Should the agreement hold and bring stability to the region, it could ignite a considerable rally,” he explains.

“We would see Middle Eastern equities, global energy stocks, and construction and infrastructure firms soar, while financials and logistics would also move sharply higher as investors price in peace, growth, and reconstruction.”

He adds: “The world has been conditioned to price in war risk for two years. If the Trump-brokered deal marks a credible path to lasting peace, that risk premium collapses. Capital will flood back into markets that have been sitting in a holding pattern. 

“Investors will chase early exposure to Gulf bourses, oil majors, and global firms linked to regional rebuilding.”

The Gulf's main indices have already signalled optimism. The Dubai Financial Market climbed around 1%, Abu Dhabi's exchange rose, and Saudi Arabia's Tadawul advanced more than 1.5% on Thursday. 

“These are early moves, but they show exactly how markets behave when geopolitical clouds start to clear,” Nigel Green explains. 

“We'd expect the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar to lead the charge, powered by their fiscal surpluses and sovereign wealth capital ready to be redeployed.”

Energy stocks would also benefit, though in a different way.

“A sustained ceasefire could narrow the geopolitical risk premium in oil, tempering prices initially. But lower volatility and predictable supply would boost the energy sector's appeal. Refiners, pipeline operators, and renewables developers tied to Gulf diversification plans could all see strong inflows,” he says.

It could be expected that the biggest upside will come in infrastructure, construction, and financial services. 

“If this agreement triggers real reconstruction efforts, there will be enormous demand for capital, materials, and project management. Cement producers, steel firms, engineering companies, and banks financing regional rebuilding will see a surge in activity. 

“It could become the single largest reconstruction investment drive since the early 2000s.”

The peace dividend, he argues, is likely to also cascade across other emerging markets. “Stability in the Middle East enhances confidence globally. 

“We'll see emerging-market bonds compress in yield as geopolitical tension fades. Asian and European markets tied to energy, construction, and shipping will also rally as risk appetite strengthens.”

The timing of the deal amplifies its potential impact. 

“Markets are already buoyed by expectations of further US rate cuts. Layer a peace framework on top of that and you have the perfect cocktail for a risk rally,” comments the deVere CEO.

“Cash-heavy institutional investors will rotate quickly out of safe assets into equities, sovereign bonds, and high-yield plays.”

He adds that investor psychology will shift dramatically. “For the first time in years, peace in the Middle East would be seen not as a hope but as an investable event. The narrative flips from conflict management to growth acceleration.”

“Energy infrastructure, transport, and logistics firms are likely to move first,” Nigel Green predicts. 

“Then banks, insurers, and capital markets across the GCC will attract inflows as they become the financing hubs of a reconstruction-led cycle. Industrials and materials will follow as tenders roll out. Even consumer stocks could benefit as confidence and regional tourism rebound.”

He warns, however, that durability matters. “Investors will reward verified progress — ceasefire enforcement, reconstruction financing, and diplomatic continuity. 

 “If those appear credible, the rally could extend for quarters, not days.”

Nigel Green concludes: “A successful, Trump-backed peace deal would not just lift regional sentiment, it could reshape global investment priorities. Markets are ready to move the moment peace looks real.”

deVere Group is one of the world's largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices around the world, more than 80,000 clients, and $14bn under advisement.

Geneva, 9 October 2025 – The latest Global Trade Update from UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released today shows that:

Global trade expanded by about $500 billion in the first half of 2025, despite volatility, policy shifts and persistent geopolitical tensions.

At Moldova Business Week 2025, a memorandum of understanding was signed between Zener Group (Republic of Moldova), New Energy Technology (China), and Horizon Auto, outlining the launch of a €20 million investment project. The project, to be implemented in Strășeni, will establish the first manufacturing facility in the Republic of Moldova dedicated to components for electric mobility infrastructure. The facility will produce equipment for charging stations and energy storage systems for electric vehicles, with a strategic export orientation towards the European market.

This investment represents a major Chinese project in the Republic of Moldova in recent years, exceeding by more than 20 times the level of investment capital previously attracted from this country. The Moldovan-Chinese strategic partnership not only highlights the growing interest of Asian investors in the local market, but also reflects the maturing investment climate in the Republic of Moldova, capable of attracting large-scale projects in high-tech areas, as well as the strategic location of the Republic of Moldova — nearshoring, which played an important role in the decision-making process regarding the geographical location of the investment.

Recent data confirms Moldova's focus on high-value technologies and its strengthening role in electric mobility supply chains. Imports from China include high-tech goods such as smartphones and photovoltaic cells, while Moldovan exports of EV components have grown by more than 50% in the last five years, with the Netherlands, Ukraine, and Romania as the main destinations. This development confirms Moldova's gradual integration into European value chains and opens up prospects for strengthening bilateral cooperation with China in high-tech and green transition areas.

In turn, the representative of the Chinese company, Mu Dayong, highlighted the strategic prospects of the project:

“We are investing €20 million to build a modern, fully automated factory for the European market. Our goal is to develop a solid production base here for energy charging and storage technologies, contributing both to the development of the region and to the integration of the Republic of Moldova into European value chains.”

The Strășeni factory will create dozens of direct jobs, given the high level of automation and semi-automation of the assembly line. The positions will be mainly in electrical and electronic engineering, logistics, and production management. At the same time, the investment will generate indirect benefits by developing local suppliers and increasing exports of technologies and components for electric vehicles.

The project contributes significantly to the development of the green technology sector in the Republic of Moldova and to increasing the country's economic capacity in the field of electric mobility. Through the involvement of Invest Moldova Agency, which facilitated dialogue with investors and supported the implementation of the project, the investment reflects the authorities' commitment to supporting strategic partnerships and creating favorable conditions for attracting foreign capital in high-tech sectors.

“This investment confirms that the Republic of Moldova is ready to actively participate in global value chains. It validates the direction we have chosen—the technological advancement of industry and the development of high value-added sectors. The project not only demonstrates investor confidence in our business environment, but also strengthens Moldova's position as a credible partner in the green transition and integration into the modern European economy”, said Natalia Bejan, Director of Invest Moldova Agency.

“This investment, carried out in partnership with New Energy Technology Co., marks a pivotal moment for Zener Group and for the economic development of the Republic of Moldova. Through the construction of the factory in Strășeni, we will produce advanced components for electric mobility infrastructure, creating dozens of skilled jobs and strengthening our country's position in European value chains. This project not only attracts significant foreign capital but also demonstrates Moldova's potential as a technological hub in the green transition.”

– Nicu Danilov, co-founder of Zener Group

08 OCTOBER 2025 – Equinor invites analysts with coverage of the company to provide estimates for the third quarter adjusted results.

Equinor publishes third quarter 2025 financial results on 29 October.

Every quarter ahead of the earnings announcement, Equinor collects earnings and production estimates from the equity analysts covering the company. These numbers become a proxy for what the market expects in terms of Equinor’s results and are published as “consensus” a week prior to the actual release.

The invitation to send estimates contains information on some relevant factors for Equinor’s quarterly results as well as other information. Some of these items are preliminary.

The invitation is published on the investor pages at Equinor.com.

“We cannot outrun climate change, but we can address its impact on health”: How WHO is taking urgent action in the Western Pacific
MANILA – Across the Western Pacific Region and globally, climate change is no longer a distant worry, it’s an everyday emergency threatening lives and health. On the International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction, we are reminded that building resilience saves lives.

When Typhoon Yagi tore through swathes of the Region last year, health facilities were among the structures severely damaged, with medical supplies and vaccines destroyed. In other corners of the Region, families displaced by floods struggled to find clean water as powerful winds, heavy rains and rising rivers destroyed sanitation and sewage systems and swept away roads and homes.

“These are not isolated stories; they are increasingly our new reality,” said Dr Saia Ma’u Piukala, WHO Regional Director for the Western Pacific. “Every storm, every flood, every wildfire, every extreme summer and winter tell us the same thing: the climate crisis is a health crisis. We cannot outrun climate change, but we can address its impact on health. We must act more urgently to protect people by making health systems better prepared, stronger and safer. This is why we’re putting climate-resilient health systems within the broader ecosystem of climate and health high on the agenda at our upcoming 76th Regional Committee for the Western Pacific, urging Ministers of Health and other policymakers to find solutions that benefit health for all.”

Jeopardizing health on the front lines

The climate crisis amplifies existing health risks, including heatstroke during record-breaking heatwaves, triggering disease outbreaks after floods, exacerbating hunger from disrupted food systems. It’s undoing hard-won health gains, with the most vulnerable communities paying the highest price.

Small island developing states in the Pacific and globally, among the least responsible for global emissions, face the greatest danger. By 2050, sea levels could rise by up to 30 centimeters, putting many health facilities underwater.

A regional plan to save lives

To respond, WHO, in consultation with Member States across the Region, has developed a regional implementation plan for climate change and health system resilience. This roadmap, complementing the WHO Global Action Plan on Climate and Health 2025-2028, prioritizes urgent steps to:

·       Strengthen high-level national and regional mechanisms on climate change and health, and put health at the core of climate action.

·       Establish regionalized alliance (ATACH) networks and expand membership and participation.

·       Make health-care facilities climate-resilient and safe so they can function even during disasters.

·       Train health workers in sustainable practices without compromising care.

·       Strengthen disease surveillance and early warning systems for climate-sensitive diseases.

·       Secure financing for health sector adaptation and mitigation efforts.

To complement this framework is a new five-year wider strategy to address the nexus of climate and health, spearheaded by the WHO Asia-Pacific Centre for Environment and Health (ACE), hosted in Seoul by the Republic of Korea. The ACE Strategy will also be launched at the Regional Committee, providing a holistic picture of how WHO can work with its 38 Western Pacific countries and areas to effectively tackle and mitigate the harms of the climate crisis from the perspective of health at the national, regional and community levels.  

“Health systems must heal, not harm, and lead by action,” said Dr Sandro Demaio, Director of ACE. “By making hospitals greener and more resilient, and by using clean energy, securing food systems, and preparing better for climate risks from rising sea levels to mounting weather-related disasters, we can save lives today and tomorrow.”

Next stop: Regional Committee Meeting

The draft plan on climate-resilient health systems has received strong support from countries. It will now be tabled for endorsement at the WHO Regional Committee for the Western Pacific, happening between 20 and 24 October in Nadi, Fiji, an annual gathering where WHO Member States come together to shape the future of health in the Region.

WHO remains committed to working with countries and partners to “weave health for all,” reflecting its regional vision that interlaces efforts, resources, and expertise to protect health, keep the  Western Pacific safer, and serve the more than 2.2 billion people who live in this vast region.  

For more on the 76th WHO Regional Committee for the Western Pacific, visit: https://www.who.int/westernpacific/about/governance/regional-committee/session-76  

Vital steps made to stabilise next-generation renewable energy technology

A University of Sydney-led team has set a record for solar technology, creating the largest and most efficient triple-junction perovskite-perovskite-silicon tandem solar cell reported.

Led by Professor Anita Ho-Baillie, John Hooke Chair of Nanoscience at the University of Sydney Nano Institute and School of Physics, the result demonstrates high efficiency and durability, important steps for overcoming barriers to the development of perovskite tandem solar cell technology.

The team’s 16 cm2 triple-junction cell achieved an independently certified steady-state power conversion efficiency of 23.3 percent, the highest reported for a large-area device of this kind. At the smaller scale, a 1 cm2 cell recorded 27.06 percent efficiency and set new standards for thermal stability.

The results are published today in the high-impact journal Nature Nanotechnology.

In a global first, the 1 cm2 cell passed the International Electrotechnical Commission’s (IEC) Thermal Cycling test, which exposes devices to 200 cycles of extreme temperature swings between -40 and 85 degrees. This cell retained 95 percent of its efficiency after more than 400 hours of continuous operation under light.

A triple-junction solar cell uses three interconnected semiconductors, each absorbing a different part of the solar spectrum to maximise conversion of the Sun’s energy into electricity.

HOW THE TEAM DID IT

Professor Ho-Baillie, also part of the University of Sydney Net Zero Institute, said this latest advance was achieved by re-engineering the chemistry of the perovskite material and the triple junction cell design.

“We improved both the performance and the resilience of these solar cells,” she said. “This not only demonstrates that large, stable perovskite devices are possible but also shows the enormous potential for further efficiency gains.”

The researchers replaced less stable methylammonium, commonly used in high-efficiency perovskite cells, with rubidium creating a perovskite lattice that is less prone to defects and degradation. They also replaced the less stable lithium fluoride with piperazinium dichloride for a new surface treatment.

To connect the two perovskite junctions, the researchers used gold at the nanoscale and, using advanced transmission electron microscopy, clarified that gold at this scale is in the form of nanoparticles, not as a continuous film as many perceived. The team used this knowledge to engineer gold nanoparticle coverage to maximise the flow of electric charge and light absorption by the solar cell.

These developments enabled the triple-junction cell to sustain high efficiencies over more time and under stress.

FUTURE SOLAR ENERGY

Perovskites are an emerging class of photovoltaic materials valued for their low-cost manufacturing and ability to capture more of the solar spectrum when stacked in multiple layers with silicon. Until now, however, scaling devices beyond the laboratory and ensuring their stability under real-world conditions have been major challenges.

“This is the largest triple-junction perovskite device yet demonstrated and it has been rigorously tested and certified by independent laboratories,” Professor Ho-Baillie said. “That gives us further confidence that the technology can be scaled for practical use.”

The research was carried out in collaboration with international partners from China, Germany and Slovenia, with support from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) and the Australian Research Council.

The publication follows recognition of Professor Ho-Baillie’s leadership in solar research at the 2025 Australian Museum Eureka Prizes for Science, where she was awarded the Eureka Prize for Sustainability Research for her pioneering work on perovskite solar technology.

“It is an exciting time for solar research,” Professor Ho-Baillie said. “Perovskites are already showing us that we can push efficiencies beyond the limits of silicon alone. These advances mean we are moving closer to cheaper, more sustainable solar energy that will help power a low-carbon future.”

RESEARCH

Zheng, J. et al ‘Tailoring nanoscale interfaces for perovskite-perovskite-silicon triple-junction solar cells’ (Nature Nanotechnology 2025) DOI: 10.1038/s41565-025-02015-x

DECLARATION

The researchers declare no competing interests. Funding was received from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Australian Research Council, Slovenian ARIS research program.

The authors acknowledge the scientific and technical assistance of the Research & Prototype Foundry Core Research Facility at the University of Sydney, part of the Australian National Fabrication Facility and Electron Microscopy Unit at UNSW.

The Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU) will convene its 151st Assembly in Geneva, Switzerland from 19-23 October 2025 under the theme: Upholding humanitarian norms and supporting humanitarian action in times of crisis.

Against a backdrop of 120 ongoing conflicts and 310 million people in need of humanitarian assistance around the world – as documented by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) – hundreds of legislators will gather to advance parliamentary action that safeguards international humanitarian law, defends the independence of relief efforts and reinforces multilateral commitments.

The Assembly will shine a spotlight on the needs of the most vulnerable in conflicts — including displaced populations, women, youth, minorities and those affected by food insecurity and disease — while supporting broader goals in peacebuilding, development, gender equality and climate action.

Other themes and meetings

Throughout the Assembly, various IPU bodies will convene, including the four thematic Standing Committees, the Forum of Women Parliamentarians, the Forum of Young Parliamentarians and the Committee on the Human Rights of Parliamentarians.

IPU bodies dedicated to parliamentary diplomacy will meet, including the Task Force for the peaceful resolution of the war in Ukraine, the Group of Facilitators on Cyprus and the Committee on Middle East Questions.

The Standing Committee on United Nations will examine the process ahead for UN reform, as well as accountability and transparency in the election of the UN Secretary General.

Other subjects under discussion will include food security, migration and transnational crime, managing AI, fostering religious literacy, parliamentary oversight of defence spending, methane reduction, preventing corporate tax evasion, and the protection of children from illegal adoption.

Membership expansion

Brunei Darussalam is expected to be welcomed as the IPU’s 182nd Member Parliament, enhancing the Organization’s universality. Several international bodies are also expected to be recognized as permanent observers.

Cremer-Passy Prize

The Assembly will feature the announcement of the winner of the 2025 Cremer-Passy Prize, honouring a parliamentarian who has shown exceptional leadership in gender equality, the IPU’s theme of the year.

Practical details

Venue: The International Conference Centre Geneva (CICG), 7 rue de Varembé, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland.

The IPU is the global organization of national parliaments. It was founded in 1889 as the first multilateral political organization in the world, encouraging cooperation and dialogue between all nations. Today, the IPU comprises 181 national Member Parliaments and 15 regional parliamentary bodies. It promotes peace, democracy and sustainable development. It helps parliaments become stronger, younger, greener and more gender-balanced. It also defends the human rights of parliamentarians through a dedicated committee made up of MPs from around the world.