The Coincident Barometer falls for the second consecutive month, while the Leading Barometer rises in April, returning to the upward tendency that began at the end of last year. Both indicators remain slightly above the 100‑point mark, indicating a continuation of moderate growth for the world economy, despite the uncertainties generated by the war between the U.S./Israel and Iran.
In April, the Global Coincident Economic Barometer falls by 0.2 point, reaching 102.1 points, while the Global Leading Economic Barometer rises by 1.7 points, reaching 102.9 points, its highest level since March 2022 (103.1 points). With this result, the Leading indicator again records a level above that of the Coincident indicator, a situation quite common in recent years. The Coincident indicators of Asia, Pacific & Africa and Europe drive the reduction of the overall indicator.
'Although the war against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz dominated the headlines in March, the movements in the two global indicators were relatively modest. Both indicators remain slightly above average. For now, it seems that survey participants think this war will be temporary and largely regional, and therefore will not affect their economic situation too much', comments Jan-Egbert Sturm, director of the KOF Institute, on the latest results.
Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors
The 0.2‑point decrease of the Coincident Barometer in April results from the negative contribution of 0.3 points from Europe and 0.1 points from Asia, Pacific & Africa. The Western Hemisphere contributes positively with 0.2 points and maintains the highest level across the regions. This result is driven by the United States, which appears to maintain a favorable assessment of the economy.
Among the coincident sector indicators, only Services rises, Industry remains constant, and Wholesale and retail trade, Construction and Economy (aggregated development of economies — Overall Economic Development — which is based on variables representing overall business and consumer evaluations) fall this month. With this result, Services records the highest level among the sectors.
Leading Barometer – regions and sectors
The Leading Global Barometer rises by 1.7 points in April, with a positive contribution from the Western Hemisphere, contributing with 1.2 points, and from Asia, Pacific & Africa, contributing with 0.5 points. Europe remains constant in the month. With this result, the Western Hemisphere indicator reaches its highest level since August 2021 (116.7 points), driven by Canada and the United States, showing optimism about the economy even after the outbreak of the war involving Iran.
All leading sector indicators rise in the month, with Wholesale and retail trade standing out, reaching its highest level since May 2022 (114.4 points), and Construction, which also records its highest level since 2022, when it reached 105.5 points in July.