The Coincident Barometer rises again in May, returning to the upward path that began last November and was interrupted in March and April of this year. The Leading Barometer moved in the opposite direction in May, remaining close to the neutral level of 100 points. Both movements are mainly driven by the Asia, Pacific & Africa region.
In May, the Global Coincident Economic Barometer rises by 1.9 points to 103.5 points, its highest level since March 2022 (107.3 points). The Global Leading Economic Barometer, in turn, moves in the opposite direction and falls by 1.4 points to 100.3 points. Across the different regions, indicators from Asia, Pacific & Africa provide the strongest contribution to the results, while the Western Hemisphere and Europe contribute more modestly.
'Although the current state of the global economy is the best it has been in years, the outlook is clearly less positive, suggesting a potential turning point. At the heart of this lies the significant divergence between Asia and the Western hemisphere. While the latter is faring well and anticipating a boom, the former is preparing for a downturn. The most logical explanation for this appears to be the situation in the Strait of Hormuz', comments Jan-Egbert Sturm, Director of KOF Swiss Economic Institute.
Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors
The 1.9-point increase in the Coincident Barometer in May results from a positive contribution of 1.4 points from the Asia, Pacific & Africa region and 0.5 point from the Western Hemisphere. Indicators for these regions reach their highest level since 2022. Meanwhile, Europe's indicator remains stable during the month, ending a sequence of two consecutive declines.
Among the coincident sector indicators, Industry rises and records the highest level among sectors, while Construction registers its third consecutive decline and reaches the lowest level for the first time since November 2022. Services decreases and maintains a certain degree of volatility in 2026. Economy (representing overall business and consumer evaluations) and Wholesale and Retail Trade remain stable during the month.
Leading Barometer – regions and sectors
The Global Leading Barometer falls by 1.4 points in May, mainly driven by a strong negative contribution of 2.5 points from the Asia, Pacific & Africa region, while the Western Hemisphere and Europe contribute more modestly but positive to the aggregated indicator, with 0.9 and 0.2 point increases, respectively. With this result, the Western Hemisphere indicator stands apart from the other regions, surpassing the 110-point mark and reaching its highest level since August 2021 (116.7 points). The Leading Global Barometer leads the world economic growth rate cycle by three to six months on average.
Among the leading sector indicators, Wholesale and Retail Trade, Construction and Industry rise during the month, while Services and Economy move in the opposite direction.